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What happens if the Strait of Hormuz crisis never ends?
For months, governments, companies, and financial markets viewed the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz as a short-term crisis that would eventually be resolved through diplomacy or a reduction in military tensions.
Moody’s Ratings is now warning the world may need to think differently.
In a new report, the ratings agency said the disruption to one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes is increasingly looking less like a short-term shock and more like a structural risk that could reshape global trade, energy markets and economic planning well beyond 2026.
“Global shipping routes are being structurally rewired,” Moody’s said. The agency said countries are increasingly turning to non-Gulf suppliers, alternative pipeline routes and regional trade systems to reduce reliance on the Strait.
The warning marks a shift in tone from earlier assessments that viewed the crisis mainly as a temporary supply disruption, reports Gulf News.
“We now have a single, central scenario which assumes a prolonged and significant disruption to the Strait of Hormuz through autumn,” Moody’s said.
Strait still vital to the world
The Strait of Hormuz handles around one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas flows, making it one of the world’s most critical trade chokepoints.
But shipping through the route has fallen by more than 90 per cent from pre-conflict levels as insurers raise premiums, shipping companies avoid the area and concerns over sea mines continue to disrupt navigation.
The conflict itself may dominate headlines, but Moody’s said the larger issue is what happens if the disruption simply drags on for months.
That could mean permanently higher shipping costs, more expensive energy, slower trade flows and new supply chain strategies as companies and governments adjust to prolonged instability in the Gulf.
Higher oil prices now a norm?
Moody’s now expects Brent crude prices to remain between $90 and $110 a barrel for much of this year, significantly above earlier expectations.
For consumers, that could mean prolonged pressure on fuel prices, airfares, transport costs and inflation. “Persistently higher energy prices will lead to increases in inflation and production costs, limiting household purchasing power,” Moody’s said.
The agency warned that even if a ceasefire or political agreement is reached, a return to normal conditions would still take time because shipping backlogs, tanker repositioning and insurance systems would need months to stabilise.
The report also suggested that some changes triggered by the crisis may not reverse at all. “Some structural shifts in supply chain design, risk premiums and defense spending will probably be permanent,” Moody’s said.
Airlines, manufacturing risks
Industries that rely heavily on fuel and transport are among the sectors most exposed if elevated oil prices continue.
Moody’s identified airlines, chemicals and building materials companies as facing the “most acute pressure” because of high operating costs and limited ability to pass rising expenses onto customers.
Consumer sectors including retail, hospitality and manufacturing could also come under strain if households reduce spending in response to higher living costs.
“Airlines, building products and chemicals face the most acute pressure,” Moody’s said. At the same time, some sectors could benefit from the changing environment.
Energy producers outside the Gulf region and aerospace and defence companies are expected to gain from higher oil prices and increased geopolitical tensions.
Asia faces the biggest challenge
The report said Asian economies remain among the most vulnerable because of their dependence on Middle Eastern energy imports.
India was identified as one of the most exposed major economies because around 46 per cent of its crude oil imports come from the Middle East.
Japan and South Korea were also described as highly vulnerable despite holding large emergency reserves, while China could face pressure on industrial profitability even with state-controlled pricing and large stockpiles.
“At sustained Brent prices of $90–$110/bbl, we estimate real GDP growth reductions of 0.2–0.8 percentage point for several major economies,” Moody’s said.
Crisis world may have to adapt to
Perhaps the biggest message from the Moody’s report is that the global economy may no longer be waiting for the Strait of Hormuz crisis to end quickly.
Instead, governments, businesses and investors are increasingly preparing for the possibility that disruption, higher costs and geopolitical risk in one of the world’s most important trade routes could become part of the global economic landscape for the foreseeable future.
2 hours ago
One of 2 missing Bangladeshi doctoral students in Florida found dead; suspect in custody
The body of one of the two Bangladeshi doctoral students missing from the University of South Florida was found on a bridge over Tampa Bay, and his roommate has been taken into custody, law enforcement authorities said Friday.
Zamil Limon’s remains were found on the Howard Frankland bridge Friday morning, but Nahida Bristy is still missing, Hillsborough County Chief Deputy Joseph Maurer said.
Limon’s roommate in an off-campus apartment, Hisham Saleh Abugharbeih, 26, was taken into custody at his family’s home nearby on preliminary charges that include unlawfully moving a dead body, failure to report a death, tampering with evidence, false imprisonment and battery.
“We are still actively searching for Nahida,” Maurer said, appealing to the public to share any useful information.
Officers encountered Abugharbeih as they responded to a report of domestic violence at his family’s home, just north of the campus, and were able to remove his relatives to safety. But then he barricaded himself inside and refused to come out. A SWAT team responded, along with a drone, a robot and crisis negotiators, before Abugarbeih came out with his hands up, apparently wearing nothing but a blue towel.
“This is a deeply disturbing case that has shaken our community and impacted many who were hoping for a safe resolution,” said Sheriff Chad Chronister. “While the discovery of Zamil Limon’s remains is heartbreaking, I want the public to know that our detectives worked and are working tirelessly and relentlessly to uncover the truth.”
Limon and Bristy, both 27, were a couple, considering marriage, a relative said. They disappeared from campus on April 16. Limon, who was studying geography, environmental science and policy, was last seen at his home in an apartment complex where he lived with Abugharbeih. Bristy, who was studying chemical engineering and lived on campus, was last seen an hour later at a campus science building.
A family friend contacted authorities last Friday after being unable to contact either one, USF police said.
Investigators interviewed Abugharbeih, who is a native-born U.S. citizen, on Thursday, Maurer said, but Abugharbeih ended the interview after a bit. He said Abugharbeih was speaking with detectives again after his arrest Friday morning.
There are no other suspects in the investigation at this time, Maurer said.
An autopsy is being done on the remains to determine the manner and cause of Limon’s death, and those results are expected Saturday morning, he said.
Abugharbeih had been a USF student but was not currently enrolled. University records showed he had attended the school from Spring 2021 through Spring 2023, and had pursued a BS in Management, a university spokeswoman said.
Abugharbeih also had several previous arrests, the sheriff’s office said. He was charged with battery and burglary of an unoccupied dwelling in September 2023, and with battery that May — both classified in court records as misdemeanors. Court records show Abugharbeih may have entered into a diversion program. A phone call to his lawyer in that case was not immediately returned.
Hillsborough County Court records also showed two domestic violence petitions filed by a family member in 2023. A judge granted an injunction in one case and denied the other petition. He also was accused of traffic violations.
“While the discovery of Zamil Limon’s remains is heartbreaking, I want the public to know that our detectives worked and are working tirelessly and relentlessly to uncover the truth,” Chronister said in the sheriff’s office statement. “We will continue to follow every fact, pursue every lead, and use every tool available to hold those responsible fully accountable. Our thoughts remain with the families of Zamil Limon and Nahida Bristy during this time.”
23 days ago
‘Food Coma’: Causes, Symptoms, Signs, and Remedies
“Food coma” can occur in both people and animals. After having a large meal, you may feel the urgency to rest and find a corner or bed to relax. This is referred to as a “food coma”. The experience feels lethargic, and people struggle to get the necessary energy. However, by being aware of a few steps, food coma can be prevented.
What is a Food Coma?
A food coma is when you feel sleepy and tired after having a heavy meal. It's not like being in a deep sleep or a medical coma. After a large meal, your body sends a lot of blood to your stomach to digest the food, which can make you feel tired because it takes blood away from other parts of your body, like your brain.
Foods high in carbohydrates and fats can also make your blood sugar spike and then crash, leaving you feeling super tired. Additionally, hormones released after eating fatty foods can slow down digestion and make you feel sluggish. When you eat carbs and fats together, it can lead to a release of insulin, which increases the production of a chemical called tryptophan in your brain. Tryptophan boosts serotonin levels, making you feel relaxed and sleepy, leading to what's known as a food coma.
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Causes of Food Coma
The reasons for a food coma lie in the intake of certain kinds and amounts of ingredients and the workload the stomach feels while metabolizing foods. To understand more deeply, reading a little explanation will help.
Foods Containing Tryptophan
People often get sleepy after eating certain types of foods. Some experts say it's because foods like whole grain, beef, lamb, poultry, dairy, nuts, seeds, legumes, etc contain a lot of a substance called tryptophan. When someone eats such foods, along with foods high in carbs, like rice or mashed potatoes, it can make them feel even sleepier.
It happens because tryptophan helps the brain make serotonin which makes a person feel calm and relaxed. Serotonin also helps the body produce melatonin, which is a hormone that gets people ready for sleep. So, eating tryptophan-enriched foods and carb-heavy foods can make people feel exhausted after a big meal.
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Anomaly in Blood Supply to Brain
Away from the brain to the digestive organs, a slight shift in blood flow can cause postprandial somnolence. Again, eating pumps up the parasympathetic nervous system (PNS), which is liable to regulate different body functions like blood pressure, heart rate, and digestion. When the stomach fills with enough food, the PNS gets triggered, causing more blood flow to the digestive organs and less to the brain. This lack of blood flow to the brain will cause a person to feel tired and sleepy.
High-Calorie Meals
Some experts propose that high-fat meals like dairy products, eggs, fatty fish, meat, nuts, seeds, etc which are low in carbohydrates can also create drowsiness.
Scientists also propose the idea of satiety signals, a rather complex combination sent to crucial sleep centers in the brain when such a meal with high fat or high calories is taken. The signal theoretically decreases hunger and arousal signals in the brain and increases sleepiness.
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Cytokines Increase
Cytokines, a molecule from the Interlekin-1 family, is a signaling substance, involved in processes like inflammatory response, and is believed by experts to be responsible for augmented post-meal fatigue.
To draw an example of the use case, experts refer to any incident that involves a person taking medications to reduce inflammatory responses when the postprandial somnolence effect gets less intense and less common. Cytokines can affect the central nervous system and increase one’s perception of fatigue.
2 years ago