With international support, Prof Muhammad Yunus-led interim government should look to score some "quick wins" to keep the public on side, said the International Crisis Group in its report released on Friday. Holding elections without reforms to put checks and balances on a future government could let another autocratic regime emerge, while a military takeover would be an even bigger setback, it said. An early election would likely bring the BNP to office with few restraints on its power; given its record, many suspect it would prove little better than the AL, the Crisis Group observed. If political and economic conditions were to deteriorate significantly, the army might intervene, beginning a period of military rule, the report claimed. "Quick wins" could include steps to address petty corruption in public services, improve electricity supply and reduce high prices. International actors should work with the interim government to support its ambitious goals and help move Bangladeshi politics into a new era, said the report titled "A New Era in Bangladesh? The First Hundred Days of Reform." Crisis Group's Senior Consultant on Myanmar and Bangladesh Thomas Kean said to maintain the widespread public support it enjoys, the interim government also needs to improve its handling of day-to-day governance. "If Yunus and his team falter, the country could revert back to having elected governments with few checks on power, or even enter a period of military rule," he said, commenting on the report. But if they can succeed in steering reforms, Bangladeshis could stand to benefit for decades to come, Kean said. He mentioned that one hundred days after Prof Yunus was sworn in to lead Bangladesh’s new interim government, the country stands at a crucial juncture. The interim government has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to improve governance and put checks in place that would prevent another autocratic regime from emerging, Kean said. "But the scale of the task is monumental," he said, adding that in particular, the interim government will need to maintain a degree of political consensus with key political players, including student leaders, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, Islamist forces, the military, and civil society. The interim government has a strong public backing for reform and the support of key players, including student leaders and the army, the International Crisis Group observed. The interim government has identified its priorities, outlined a process and laid out an initial timeline. Read: Finance Adviser prioritises short-term reforms over long-term ones Sheikh Hasina’s flight from Bangladesh on 5 August has created a once-in-a generation opportunity for political renewal that can move the country beyond the bitter divisions and violence that has characterised much of the past five decades, according to the report. The interim government will need to build political consensus while maintaining economic stability and delivering steady results to ensure that the Bangladeshi public remains firmly behind it, said the Crisis Group. The alternatives would be unappealing for both Bangladesh and its partners, it observed. What’s new?  Three months after an uprising toppled former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, the reform agenda of Bangladesh’s interim government is becoming clearer – along with the pitfalls that lie in its path. Led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, the administration is expected to remain in office for another year and maybe longer. Why does it matter?  After fifteen years of Hasina’s rule, Bangladesh has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to improve governance and put checks in place that would stop another autocratic regime from emerging. "If the interim government falters, however, the country could revert to the status quo ante or even enter a period of military rule." What should be done?  The interim government should aim to produce quick results to maintain public support for more ambitious reforms. It should avoid staying in power too long and build consensus on new measures among political parties, said the report. External actors should offer aid; India should work to repair its image with the Bangladeshi people, it mentioned. Read more: Major reforms underway to improve train ticketing system, combat scalping: Adviser Fouzul   After fifteen years in office, Sheikh Hasina’s administration had grown "deeply unpopular." To hold on to power, the report said, her government "systematically undermined" the independence of Bangladesh’s institutions, particularly the police, judiciary and bureaucracy. Even if it is unclear how successful the Yunus team can be in reaching the goal, the alternatives look unappealing, said the report . Foreign governments and multilateral institutions should provide the interim government with technical and financial assistance, including on security, judicial, electoral and economic reform. Foreign governments should also help recover the proceeds of corruption and state-sanctioned theft that are sitting in banks and property markets outside Bangladesh. India, which "staunchly supported" Hasina throughout her rule, should take steps to repair the resulting damage to its image, said the report. Support at home and abroad will be crucial to ensure that Bangladesh does not lose this chance at the political and economic change that many of its people long for, said the report .

Bangladesh's dependence on India and China will increase if the United States and potentially other Western countries go for further pressure and sanctions, such as visa bans on top officials, the International Crisis Group has said. "It could also cause the government to increase its dependence on India and China, as the US (and potentially other Western countries) will probably respond with sanctions, such as visa bans on top officials," according to the October 2023-March 2024 edition of "On the Horizon" report of the Crisis Group. The International Crisis Group is an independent organisation working to prevent wars and shape policies aiming for a more peaceful world. BNP has declared October 28 for a movement to topple the government and the ruling party Awami League says BNP's downfall will start on that day. Read: Free, fair, peaceful elections incredibly important: Afreen Akhter So far, a peaceful atmosphere prevails in the country. A disputed election could trigger fierce anti-government protests, according to the International Crisis Group. Election-related activities, such as campaigning and voting, could become flashpoints for violent attacks; spillover could also increase from restive states in India’s northeast, it said. Read: Bangladeshis will decide how election will be held in the country: India What to watch for in the coming weeks and months as mentioned by the Crisis Group 1. A high-stakes and potentially violent election in January 2024. 2. The ruling Awami League is expected to ignore calls for it to step down and hand power to a caretaker government that would oversee the election. 3. Rival supporters could clash in street battles or attack party offices or candidates. 4. Islamist groups could become more active in opposing the government. 5. Facing the prospect of a disputed poll, the opposition will probably boycott the election and could become radicalised, adopting more violent tactics. 6. Lack of hope, insecurity and poverty threaten to create a vicious cycle in which desperate Rohingyas – particularly young men – could join criminal gangs and armed groups, further fuelling the violence. Read more: Masud-Afreen Meeting: Bangladesh, US want "free, fair, peaceful" elections

The United States is poised to call for the United Nations to reimpose sanctions on Iran under a rarely used diplomatic maneuver after a resounding defeat in the Security Council.