The International Crisis Group has said the incoming administration in Bangladesh will need to address a raft of challenges, from weak institutions to a sluggish economy heavily dependent on garment exports and remittances to the growing effects of climate change in one of the world’s most densely populated countries.

It will also need to 'navigate tricky foreign policy issues, particularly relations with India, the implications of the intensifying U.S.-China rivalry' and the lack of progress toward resolving the status of more than one million Rohingya refugees languishing in camps near the Myanmar border, said Thomas Kean, Crisis Group’s Senior Consultant on Myanmar and Bangladesh.

He said an elected government with a five-year term will be better positioned to manage the country’s political rancour and social and economic challenges than an interim administration, but the tasks at hand are many and complex.

"If the result is contested, it could spiral into a political crisis, testing the fragile consensus that has underpinned the transition," said Kean.

He made the remarks while commenting further on the latest Q&A, 'Curtain Falls on Bangladesh’s Interim Government as Critical Elections Approach', which examines what is at stake in Bangladesh’s 12 February election.

Even if the vote passes peacefully, Kean said the next government will face mounting pressure to meet the aspirations of a youthful and frustrated population and to deliver reforms, starting with the July Charter, or risk reinforcing perceptions that the promised political change has been largely cosmetic.

“Predicting the outcome of the 12 February poll is challenging because Bangladesh’s electoral landscape has shifted so much," he said.

The biggest risks revolve around security: political violence is already on the rise - at least sixteen politicians have been killed since the election schedule was announced, Kean said.

He said there is a real danger of further attacks on candidates, as well as reprisals against Awami League supporters or Bangladesh’s Hindu minority.

The International Crisis Group is an independent organisation working to prevent wars and shape policies that will build a more peaceful world.

Crisis Group has offices in Bogotá, Brussels, Dakar, Istanbul, London, Nairobi, New York and Washington, DC and has a presence in more than 25 different locations in Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East and the Americas.

Highlighting the main challenges facing the next government, Kean said the 12 February elections are crucial for several reasons.

There are also concerns over the growing influence of radical Islamist groups, such as Hizb ut-Tahrir, which have become more prominent since former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s ouster, and the capacity of state forces to watch out for violent extremist activity, he observed.

Perhaps, Kean said, the most important threat to stability in the years ahead would stem from a failure to meet the aspirations of Bangladesh’s youthful population.

Roughly half are under 30, and many struggle to find work that matches their education level, leaving a deep sense of frustration.

Any stumble in seeing through reforms, starting with the July Charter, would risk reinforcing a perception that the political change they were promised has been cosmetic, he said.

The incoming government will also have to grapple with the 'thorny issue of political reconciliation.'

Given its prominence in the country’s history and its strong electoral base, the Awami League cannot remain on the sidelines forever, Kean said.

But the party’s actions under Hasina, particularly in July-August 2024, mean that allowing it to come back to the electoral arena, even under new leadership, will be politically fraught, he said.

India and other foreign governments with influence could help broker dialogue between the party and the future government to come to an agreement, Kean said.

Foreign governments, he said, many of which have cheered on Prof Muhammad Yunus and his colleagues, should extend support to the incoming government as it seeks to turn the page on Bangladesh’s recent turbulence.