The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) concluded its 37th summit and related meetings on Sunday, putting priorities on measures to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic and commitments to multilateral cooperation.
Addressing the closing ceremony, Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc said that leaders of the bloc exchanged views and agreed on many drastic measures to promote cooperation to overcome challenges posed by COVID-19, and to accelerate economic recovery in ASEAN countries.
Many initiatives on cooperation in response to COVID-19 and disease risks have been announced and come into force, including the COVID-19 ASEAN Response Fund, the ASEAN Regional Reserve of Medical Supplies, and the ASEAN Regional Center on Public Health Emergencies and Emerging Diseases, Phuc said.
The leaders also adopted the ASEAN Comprehensive Recovery Framework and its synchronous Implementation Plan to support people and businesses to soon overcome the consequences of COVID-19 epidemic and stabilize the socio-economic life, the prime minister said.
Many important issues on creating a new driving force for the relationship between ASEAN and its partners have been agreed on by the leaders, which affirms a strong commitment to multilateral cooperation as well as economic liberalization, Phuc said.
Notably, under the framework of the event, representatives from ASEAN countries and five partners, namely China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement Sunday, launching the world's biggest free trade bloc.
The signing is of significant importance not only to ASEAN, but also to global trade as it will help to mitigate the negative impacts of COVID-19, boosting business operation activities and create jobs for people, Phuc told the press briefing held on Sunday afternoon.
The first ever ASEAN Women Leaders' Summit was also held over the four days, aiming at promoting women's role and contribution to the bloc's development in the post-pandemic period.
During the meetings, a record high of over 80 documents have been adopted and signed, Phuc said.
The 37th ASEAN Summit and related meetings took place from Thursday to Sunday via video conferences under the chair of Vietnam. After the meetings, a ceremony was held to hand over the ASEAN Chairmanship to Brunei Darussalam.
Founded in 1967, ASEAN groups Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
Read Also: ASEAN, China, other partners set world’s biggest trade pact
China and 14 other countries agreed Sunday to set up the world’s largest trading bloc, encompassing nearly a third of all economic activity, in a deal many in Asia are hoping will help hasten a recovery from the shocks of the pandemic.
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, was signed virtually on Sunday on the sidelines of the annual summit of the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
“I am delighted to say that after eight years of hard work, as of today, we have officially brought RCEP negotiations to a conclusion for signing,” said host country Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc.
“The conclusion of RCEP negotiation, the largest free trade agreement in the world, will send a strong message that affirms ASEAN’s leading role in supporting the multilateral trading system, creating a new trading structure in the region, enabling sustainable trade facilitation, revitalizing the supply chains disrupted by COVID-19 and assisting the post pandemic recovery,” Phuc said.
The accord will take already low tariffs on trade between member countries still lower, over time, and is less comprehensive than an 11-nation trans-Pacific trade deal that President Donald Trump pulled out of shortly after taking office.
Apart from the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, it includes China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, but not the United States. Officials said the accord leaves the door open for India, which dropped out due to fierce domestic opposition to its market-opening requirements, to rejoin the bloc.
It is not expected to go as far as the European Union in integrating member economies but does build on existing free trade arrangements.
The deal has powerful symbolic ramifications, showing that nearly four years after Trump launched his “America First” policy of forging trade deals with individual countries, Asia remains committed to multi-nation efforts toward freer trade that are seen as a formula for future prosperity.
Ahead of Sunday’s RCEP “special summit” meeting, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said he would firmly convey his government’s support for “broadening a free and fair economic zone, including a possibility of India’s future return to the deal, and hope to gain support from the other countries.”
The accord is also a coup for China, by far the biggest market in the region with more than 1.3 billion people, allowing Beijing to cast itself as a “champion of globalization and multilateral cooperation” and giving it greater influence over rules governing regional trade, Gareth Leather, senior Asian economist for Capital Economics, said in a report.
China’s official Xinhua News Agency quoted Premier Li Keqiang hailing the agreement as a victory against protectionism, in remarks delivered via a video link.
“The signing of the RCEP is not only a landmark achievement of East Asian regional cooperation, but also a victory of multilateralism and free trade,” Li said.
Now that Trump’s opponent Joe Biden has been declared president-elect, the region is watching to see how U.S. policy on trade and other issues will evolve.
Analysts are skeptical Biden will push hard to rejoin the trans-Pacific trade pact or to roll back many of the U.S. trade sanctions imposed on China by the Trump administration given widespread frustration with Beijing’s trade and human rights records and accusations of spying and technology theft.
Critics of free trade agreements say they tend to encourage companies to move manufacturing jobs overseas. So, having won over disaffected rust-belt voters in Michigan and western Pennsylvania in the Nov. 3 election, Biden is “not going to squander that by going back into TPP,” Michael Jonathan Green of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a web seminar.
But given concerns over China’s growing influence, Biden is likely to seek much more engagement with Southeast Asia to protect U.S. interests, he said.
The fast-growing and increasingly affluent Southeast Asian market of 650 million people has been hit hard by the pandemic and is urgently seeking fresh drivers for growth.
RCEP originally would have included about 3.6 billion people and encompassed about a third of world trade and global GDP. Minus India, it still covers more than 2 billion people and close to a third of all trade and business activity.
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, the retooled version of the North American Free Trade Agreement under Trump, covers slightly less economic activity but less than a tenth of the world’s population. The EU and Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership, the revised version of the deal Trump rejected, also are smaller. RCEP includes six of the 11 remaining CPTPP members.
India balked at exposing its farmers and factories to more foreign competition. Among other concerns, Indian dairy farmers are worried about competition from New Zealand and Australian milk and cheese producers. Automakers fear imports from across the region. But overall the biggest fear is over a flood of manufactured goods from China.
Trade and investment flows within Asia have vastly expanded over the past decade, a trend that has accelerated amid feuding between the U.S. and China, which have imposed billions of dollars’ worth of punitive tariffs on each other’s exports.
The RCEP agreement is loose enough to stretch to fit the disparate needs of member countries as diverse as Myanmar, Singapore, Vietnam and Australia. Unlike the CPTPP and EU, it does not establish unified standards on labor and the environment or commit countries to open services and other vulnerable areas of their economies.
But it does set rules for trade that will facilitate investment and other business within the region, Jeffrey Wilson, research director at the Perth USAsia Center, said in a report for the Asia Society.
“RCEP, therefore, is a much-needed platform for the Indo-Pacific’s post-COVID recovery,” he wrote.
ASEAN members include Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, Brunei, Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam.
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Chinese consumers are expected to spend tens of billions on everything from fresh food to luxury goods during this year’s Singles’ Day online shopping festival, as the country recovers from the pandemic.
The shopping festival, which is the world’s largest and falls on Nov. 11 every year, is an annual extravaganza where China’s e-commerce companies, including Alibaba, JD.com and Pinduoduo, offer generous discounts on their platforms. Last year, shoppers spent $38.4 billion on Alibaba’s e-commerce platforms Tmall and Taobao.
This year’s festival will be closely watched as a barometer of consumption in China, which is just beginning to bounce back from the coronavirus pandemic after months of lockdown earlier in the year.
Analysts expect Chinese consumers to spend more on imported products and foreign luxury brands, since many Chinese tourists were unable to travel internationally due to the coronavirus pandemic and tightened travel restrictions.
A survey by consulting firm Oliver Wyman found that 86% of Chinese consumers are willing to spend the same as or more than during last year’s Singles’ Day festival.
“In the last six months or so, wealthy households have actually spent more money,” said Sean Shen, customer and strategy competence leader for EY in Greater China. “We also see that purchases of luxury segment products are increasing because of the international travel restrictions.”
Sales of electronic goods and health and wellness products are also expected to rise, as more people work from home and pay more attention to their health amid the pandemic, according to a report by consultancy Bain & Company.
To help merchants cope with the impact from the coronavirus, online platforms have extended the shopping festival period this year in hopes of boosting sales.
Both Alibaba and JD.com, the country’s two biggest e-commerce companies, began offering discounts on Oct. 21, three weeks ahead of Nov. 11. Some brands and merchants that slashed their prices booked hundreds of millions of yuan (tens of millions of dollars) in sales just hours into the shopping festival.
Tang Chenghui, an electrical engineer who lives in Beijing sees Singles’ Day as an opportunity to stock up on snacks and imported products such as milk from Australia. Ahead of the festival, Tang pre-ordered 3 boxes of duck eggs, 10 packets of soybean milk powder, two boxes of yogurt, coffee and wine.
“I’m buying more snacks this year because I’ve just moved into a new apartment and have enough storage space to stockpile the snacks I like,” said Tang. “Some of these products are really cheap during the Singles’ Day discounts.”
Unlike Black Friday and Cyber Monday in the U.S., Singles’ Day in China is not just about deep bargains. Alibaba pioneered the concept of Singles’ Day and holds an annual gala on Nov. 11 with celebrity performances to entertain shoppers.
E-commerce sales via livestreaming and Alibaba’s annual gala are part of a “shoppertainment” trend which blends shopping with entertainment in order to become more appealing and engaging to shoppers.
Mini games within online shopping platforms entice shoppers with deeper discounts while encouraging them to spend more time within the app.
“Because of COVID-19, brands and retailers have doubled down on e-commerce and livestreaming commerce to drive growth, and it will show strongly on (Singles’ Day) this year,” said Wang Xiaofeng, a senior analyst at Forrester.
But while millions of shoppers spend hours on mini games hoping to snag better bargains, some are irked by the complexities required to win such discounts.
“Black Friday discounts tend to be better, and they are more straightforward,” said Liu Zhirou, a 27 year-old Beijing-based accountant. “Now, I still ask my friends to help me buy things from the U.S. during Black Friday.”
“The rules around Singles’ Day discounts now are getting more and more complicated,” she said. “I usually just spend my money on Black Friday, and buy less on Singles’ Day.”
U.S. futures rose and Asia markets were mostly higher on Wednesday as investors took an optimistic stance on the still undecided U.S. presidential election.
At about 2 a.m. Eastern time, President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden were locked in tight races in battleground states. Most polls had predicted a Biden victory.
Many investors took forecasts of a so-called “blue wave” of Democratic Party wins as a signal that the U.S. economy might soon get a big, fresh infusion of help. But with the race too close to call, analysts said they also might be reassured by the prospect for a continuation of Trump’s pro-market stance.
“Markets seem to be pricing in better chances for Trump, or at least a smaller chance of a blue wave,” Stephen Innes of Axi said in a commentary.
“On the one hand with the fiscal implications of a Biden win/blue wave that’s a bit of a surprise -– on the other Trump is widely considered more market-friendly, so one can see how it nets out a small positive,” Innes said.
Dow futures were up 0.3% and the S&P 500 futures rose 0.8%. Both initially fell as election returns began coming in. The Nasdaq future contract rose 2.3%. The gains in the futures followed a strong performance in regular trading Tuesday.
In Asia, the Nikkei 225 in Tokyo advanced 1.7% to 23,695.23 on Wednesday, while the Kospi in Seoul added 0.6%, to 2,357.17. India’s Sensex surged 0.9% and the S&P/ASX 200 in Sydney lost 0.1% to 6,062.10.
The Hang Seng in Hong Kong rose 0.3% to 25,019.04, while the Shanghai Composite Index edged 0.1% to 3,273.55.
Investors were considering the implications of a last-minute decision by Chinese regulators to suspend the planned trading debut for shares in Ant Group, the fin-tech affiliate of e-commerce giant Alibaba, after what was expected to be a nearly $35 billion initial public offering.
The decision late Tuesday caused the plans for trading in Shanghai and Hong Kong to be put off due to what the Chinese stock market watchdog said were “major issues” with Ant Group’s regulatory compliance.
Hopes prevailed that the end of a bruising U.S. presidential campaign might lift the uncertainty that’s sent markets spinning recently. By early morning Eastern time, results were still pending for eight states, including Pennsylvania.
The 2016 election rattled world markets as results showed Donald Trump was running ahead of Hillary Clinton. The S&P 500 slumped early the next day, but ended 1.1% higher.
The large number of Americans who voted early means the result of this presidential election might not be known for days. A contested election could inflict still more uncertainty on markets buffeted by bouts of volatility as the coronavirus pandemic has waxed and waned.
Investors are most eager to see a clear winner from this election, even if it takes some time. History shows stocks tend to rise regardless of which party controls the White House.
The makeup of the Senate is another unknown overhanging the markets. Another is the timing of a possible COVID-19 vaccine.
The S&P 500 rose 1.8% to 3,369.16 on Tuesday for a second straight gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2.1%, and the Nasdaq composite added 1.9%.
Shares in sectors that would benefit greatly from an ample support package for the economy, especially if Democrats were to control the Senate, were among the biggest gainers, including smaller companies and industrial businesses.
Investors and economists have been clamoring for a renewal of stimulus since the expiration of the last round of supplemental benefits for laid-off workers and other support approved earlier by Congress.
If Trump wins and the Senate stays under Republican control there would likely be less stimulus than under a Democratic sweep, said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance. A Biden win and Republican Senate would mean the lowest chance for stimulus.
But investors see cause for optimism in other scenarios, too. A Trump victory would likely mean a continuation of lower tax rates and lighter regulation on businesses, buoying the corporate profits that are the lifeblood of the stock market.
Many professional investors say what matters most is what happens with the pandemic and whether a vaccine can arrive soon to help the economy heal.
Apart from the election, investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s decision on its interest-rate policy on Thursday. Its earlier moves to slash interest rates to record lows and to step forcefully into bond markets to push prices higher have helped Wall Street soar since March.
The Labor Department is also releasing its jobs report for October on Friday, where economists expect to see another slowdown in growth. Meanwhile, corporate earnings reports are showing lower profits in the last quarter, but not as miserable as Wall Street had feared.
In other trading, U.S. benchmark crude oil gained $1.01 to $38.67 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It picked up 85 cents to $37.66 on Tuesday. Brent crude, the international standard, gained $1.03 to $40.71 per barrel.
The dollar bought 104.94 Japanese yen, up from 104.95 late Tuesday. The euro weakened to $1.1657 from $1.1718.
Read Also: Trump wins Florida, locked in other tight races with Biden
Barely three months after reporting a net debt of some USD 21 billion, India's billionaire businessman Mukesh Ambani-owned oil-to-telecom conglomerate Reliance Industries announced its debt-free status in June this year -- all thanks to an unprecedented fundraising spree that helped cheer up the country's bourses amid Covid.
Reliance had, in fact, raised USD 15.2 billion by selling stakes in its telecom unit Jio and another USD 7 billion through rights issue just in the first quarter of this fiscal that saw the shares of the conglomerate hitting an all-time high and helped both the benchmark indices, Nifty and Sensex, shrug off weak global cues during the Covid-induced slowdown.
“I am both delighted and humbled to announce that we have fulfilled our promise to the shareholders by making Reliance net debt-free much before our original schedule of March 31, 2021," Ambani, the chairman and managing director of Reliance Industries, had said at the virtual shareholders' meet in July, while announcing the first quarter results.
But the haste at which Ambani had signed of the back-to-back deals with some US-based firms between April and June -- which also fuelled Reliance's market capitalisation to cross USD 150 billion, the first Indian company to reach this milestone -- can be attributed to its "hard efforts" to list Jio as a separate digital company on the country's bourses next year.
Jio has attracted some 370 million subscribers to its network since its mega launch in 2016, despite being a late entrant to India's telecom sector. By offering free voice calls and data at the world's cheapest price, it has already changed the country's digital landscape that was earlier dominated by the duopolies of domestic Airtel and British MNC Vodafone.
UNB has learnt that the top management of Reliance Industries is aggressively planning to take Jio public in the second half of the next fiscal, given the fact that the parent company has already managed to cut its net debt to zero. "By that time, the proceeds from the rights issue will be entirely received from retail and institutional investors," sources said.
The rights issue was structured in such a way that investors paid only 25% of the value of the shares they applied for, while they would have to cough up the remaining in two equal instalments in the first quarter of the next fiscal. "So, once all the funds are in, time will be right for Reliance to take Jio public as a separate entity," the sources said.
Reliance Industries has traditionally been in the oil and gas sector and chemicals business, both highly cyclical as compared to the defensive consumer and digital plays. And experts say the idea behind taking Jio public stems out of the fact that the pandemic has increased digital adoption across the world, including in India.
"Over the years, Reliance has become a conglomerate by diversifying into telecom and retail businesses, which have turned the tide for the company. In fact, the consumer-facing businesses now contribute nearly 35% of its operating profit. By listing Jio, Ambani wants to cash in on the growing digital dependence," said Delhi-based economist Nayana Singhal.
Stocks like Amazon, Netflix, Apple, Facebook, Google have all seen strong buying interest due to their digital capabilities and lower impact on the business during the Covid pandemic.
Some of these tech titans have also invested in Jio platforms, between April 22 and May 8, notable among them being Facebook. The social networking giant has become the Indian conglomerate's largest minority shareholder, with a 9.99 per cent stake, by investing USD 5.7 billion in Reliance.
"Also, talks are ongoing between Reliance and Saudi Aramco over the latter's USD 15 billion investment. All these indicate that we would see Jio on the country's bourses in the next fiscal. Moreover, being the cheapest data seller in India, Jio could well dislodge the other two telecom companies," said Ajai Misra, a telecom veteran based in Delhi.
India has the cheapest mobile broadband prices in the world. As per an international study, users in India pay USD 0.26 for 1 gigabyte (GB) of mobile data as compared with USD 12.37 in the US, USD 6.66 in the UK, and a global average of USD 8.53.
Leading consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates the number of internet users in India is likely to grow to 850 million in 2022. So, if Jio, said to be the cheapest data seller in the world, becomes public next year, it could well change the dynamics of the telecom sector in the Indian equity indices too, say experts.
"India is one of the world's largest telecom markets. But neither Vodafone nor Airtel is in a good financial position, grappling with financial constraints to cough up AGR or adjusted gross revenue dues to the government. Jio, on the other hand, being a late entrant is more or less saved from paying huge AGR dues. It's a win-win for Jio," Misra said.
It may also be mentioned here that Reliance is already in talks with a number of fast moving consumer goods companies in this country to deliver daily-use domestic essentials at the doorsteps of consumers via Jio's e-commerce venture JioMart. Facebook's chat service WhatsApp has tied up with JioMart to make consumers connect with local groceries.
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