The escalating military tensions in the Middle East centered around Iran, Israel, and the United States have sent shockwaves through the Bangladeshi economy, sparking a sharp rise in energy costs and leaving thousands of tons of export goods stranded.
As the conflict threatens the vital Strait of Hormuz, economists and business leaders warn of a multi-dimensional crisis involving fuel shortages, record-high shipping costs, and a potential spike in domestic inflation.
President of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) Mahmud Hasan Khan said that all entrepreneurs are concerned about export and import in the Middle East conflict.
“We are talking with the government and foreign buyers on export shipment, along with watching the situation,” he said.
The same opinion was echoed by the president of Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA), Muhammad Hatem, who said that export is also involved with import. So, both need a sustainable environment for smooth business.
Any kind of disruption in export-import or energy supply uncertainty will affect business severely, he said.
On Wednesday (March 4), global oil prices hit their highest levels since early 2025. Brent crude rose to US $82.53 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed to $75.37.
For Bangladesh, which relies on the Middle East for nearly 90 percent of its fuel imports, the stakes are high. The Strait of Hormuz serves as the gateway for one-fifth of the world’s oil and significant LNG supplies. Any prolonged disruption here directly impacts Bangladesh’s power generation, transport costs, and foreign exchange reserves.
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The conflict has created a logistical nightmare at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport and Chittagong Port. Major airlines from Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and the UAE have suspended cargo operations from Dhaka. Over 1,200 tons of export goods, primarily Ready-Made Garments (RMG), are currently stuck at the airport.
Shipping lines, including the Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), have halted new bookings for Middle East-bound containers. Over 1,000 containers filled with frozen fish, processed food, and plastic goods are stranded across various ports.
The "war premium" is already being felt in the kitchen market. Importers report that the cost of transporting palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia has jumped by $8-$10 per ton.
"The war’s duration is uncertain, but the impact is immediate," says Dr. Mustafizur Rahman, Distinguished Fellow at CPD.
"While the initial hiccup is in logistics, the long-term threat is energy security. We must prepare an emergency roadmap for alternative sourcing,” he added.
The conflict exposes several critical vulnerabilities for Bangladesh, such as supply chain rerouting. Vessels are being forced to take the Cape of Good Hope route, adding 5,000 kilometers to journeys, significantly increasing freight charges and delivery times.
The textile industry faces delays in importing cotton from Western markets, while the plastic sector is struggling with blocked petrochemical shipments.
Beyond trade, the safety and stability of the millions of Bangladeshi expatriates working in the Gulf remains a looming concern for the country’s remittance inflow.
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Business leaders and economists, including Dr. Selim Raihan of SANEM, are urging the government to engage in immediate tripartite consultations with researchers and traders.
While the government maintains that there are several weeks of fuel and grain reserves, experts argue that "strategic stockpiling" and "source diversification" are no longer optional. If the tensions in the Persian Gulf do not subside quickly, Bangladesh may face a period of forced austerity and heightened economic volatility.