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A new study has showed many areas around New Zealand will become unsuitable for blue and sperm whales as global sea-surface temperatures continue to rise, with new modelling predicting they will be seeking refuge further south. Areas around New Zealand's southern and eastern offshore islands will likely become more suitable for these species, but the move will have a destabilizing effect on marine ecosystems. These changes will likely have a negative effect on tourism in areas such as New Zealand's Kaikoura, known for whale watching, as sightings become less frequent and less reliable, according to the study recently published in the international journal Ecological Indicators, Most of the tourists going on a whale watching tour in Kaikoura can spot whales from their boats, Nick Jiang, a tour operator in New Zealand's South Island, told Xinhua on Thursday. However, the chance of spotting a giant sperm whale is decreasing. Instead, killer whales, humpback whales and other smaller whales are much easier to be spotted, Jiang said. Selling boat tickets for whale watching in Kaikoura, TripAdvisor said on its website "You are almost guaranteed to spot a whale, as you'll receive most of your ticket price back if you don't." Most of the whale watchers' comments on TripAdvisor are positive, such as "well worth the money" and "a once in a lifetime experience." The international collaborative study between Massey University, the University of Zurich, the University of Canterbury, and Flinders University, has shed light on how climate change will impact the distribution of great whales in New Zealand waters. It used a complex modelling approach to project the regional range shift of blue and sperm whales by the year 2100, under different climate change scenarios. Read: Stranded whale out of French river, to be moved to saltwater The study showed a southerly shift of suitable habitat for both species, which "increases in magnitude as the ocean warms." The most severe climate change scenario that was tested generated a 61 percent loss and 42 percent decrease in currently suitable habitat for sperm and blue whales, mostly in New Zealand's northern waters. "Regardless of which of the climate change scenarios will be the reality, even the best-case scenario indicates notable changes in the distribution of suitable habitat for sperm and blue whales in New Zealand," said research lead Dr Katharina Peters of the University of Canterbury. Island nations such as New Zealand are extremely vulnerable to climate change impact on marine ecosystems because of their strong connection to the ocean, Peters said, adding sperm whales in New Zealand are critical for the tourism industry and local economy. Great whales, such as sperm and blue whales, are important ecosystem engineers. This means that they fulfill a multitude of tasks such as facilitating the transfer of nutrients from deep waters to the surface, and across latitudes via migration from feeding to calving areas. Their predicted future southward shift, driven by climate change, will impact ecosystem functioning and potentially destabilize ecological processes in the northern part of New Zealand, the study showed.   The study also highlighted habitats that may be suitable in the future for both whale species in New Zealand's South Island and offshore islands, which provides an opportunity for their increased protection in the future.

Donald Trump ’s pick for governor in the swing state of Wisconsin easily defeated a favorite of the Republican establishment. In Connecticut, the state that launched the Bush family and its brand of compassionate conservatism, a fiery Senate contender who promoted Trump’s election lies upset the state GOP’s endorsed candidate. Meanwhile in Washington, Republicans ranging from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to conspiracy theorist Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene defended Trump against an unprecedented FBI search. And that was just this week. The rapid developments crystalized the former president’s singular status atop a party he has spent the past seven years breaking down and rebuilding in his image. Facing mounting legal vulnerabilities and considering another presidential run, he needs support from the party to maintain his political career. But, whether they like it or not, many in the party also need Trump, whose endorsement has proven crucial for those seeking to advance to the November ballot. “For a pretty good stretch, it felt like the Trump movement was losing more ground than it was gaining,” said Georgia Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, who is urging his party to move past Trump. But now, he said, Trump is benefiting from “an incredibly swift tail wind.” The Republican response to the FBI’s search of Trump’s Florida estate this week was an especially stark example of how the party is keeping Trump nearby. Some of the Republicans considering challenges to Trump in a 2024 presidential primary, such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, were among those defending him. Even long-established Trump critics like Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan questioned the search, pressing for details about its circumstances. Also read: GOP rallies around Trump following FBI search of his estate But even before the FBI showed up at Mar-a-Lago, Trump was gaining momentum in his post-presidential effort to shape the GOP. In all, nearly 180 Trump-endorsed candidates up and down the ballot have won their primaries since May while fewer than 20 have lost. Only two of the 10 House Republicans who supported Trump’s impeachment after the Jan. 6 insurrection are expected back in Congress next year. Rep. Jaime Herrera-Beutler, R-Wash., who conceded defeat after her Tuesday primary, was the latest to fall. Leading Trump antagonist Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., is at risk of joining her next week. The Trump victories include a clean sweep of statewide primary elections in Arizona last week — including an election denier in the race for the state’s chief elections official. Trump’s allies also prevailed Tuesday across Wisconsin and Connecticut, a state long known for its moderate Republican leanings. In Wisconsin’s Republican primary for governor, wealthy Trump-backed businessman Tim Michels defeated former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch, an establishment favorite. And in Connecticut, Leora Levy, who promoted Trump’s lie that the 2020 election was stolen, surged to an unexpected victory over a more moderate rival after earning Trump’s official endorsement. On Monday, just hours after the FBI search, Trump hosted a tele-town hall rally on her behalf. Levy thanked Trump in her acceptance speech, while railing against the FBI’s search. “All of us can tell him how upset and offended and disgusted we were at what happened to him,” she said. “That is un-American. That is what they do in Cuba, in China, in dictatorships. And that will stop.” Despite his recent dominance, Trump — and the Republicans close to him — face political and legal threats that could undermine their momentum as the GOP fights for control of Congress and statehouses across the nation this fall. While Trump’s picks have notched notable victories in primaries this summer, they may struggle in the fall. That’s especially true in several governor’s races in Democratic-leaning states such as Connecticut and Maryland, where GOP candidates must track to the center to win a general election. Meanwhile, several Republicans with White House ambitions are moving forward with a busy travel schedule that will take them to politically important states where they can back candidates on the ballot this year and build relationships heading into 2024. DeSantis plans to boost high-profile Republican contenders across Arizona, New Mexico, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Former Vice President Mike Pence, another potential 2024 presidential contender, is scheduled to appear next week in New Hampshire. On the legal front, the FBI search was part of an investigation into whether the former president took classified records from the White House to his Florida residence. While Republicans have rallied behind Trump, very few facts about the case have been released publicly. Trump’s attorneys have so far declined to release details from the search warrant. Prosecutors in Washington and Georgia are also investigating Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election he falsely claimed was stolen. The Jan. 6 congressional commission has exposed damning details about Trump’s behavior from Republican witnesses in recent hearings, which have prompted new concerns, at least privately, among the GOP establishment and donor class. And on Wednesday, Trump invoked his Fifth Amendment protection against self-incrimination as he testified under oath Wednesday in the New York attorney general’s long-running civil investigation into his business dealings. Trump’s legal entanglements represent a distraction at best for Republican candidates who’d rather focus on President Joe Biden’s leadership, sky-high inflation and immigration troubles to help court moderate voters and independents in the general election. “Today, every Republican in every state in this country should be talking about how bad Joe Biden is, how bad inflation is, how difficult it is to run a business and run a household,” said Duncan, the Georgia lieutenant governor. “But instead, we’re talking about some investigation, we’re talking about Donald Trump pleading the Fifth, we’re talking about Donald Trump endorsing some conspiracy theorist.” Trump critics in both parties are ready and willing to highlight Trump’s shortcomings — and his relationship with midterm candidates — as more voters begin to pay attention to politics this fall. “This is, and always has been, Donald Trump’s Republican Party,” Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison said in an interview, condemning “MAGA Republicans” and their “extreme agenda” on abortion and other issues. At the same time, the Republican Accountability Project and Protect Democracy launched a $3 million television and digital advertising campaign this week across seven swing states focused on Trump’s role in the Jan. 6 insurrection. The ads, which will run in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, feature testimonials from Republican voters who condemn Trump’s lies about nonexistent election fraud that fueled the Capitol attack. One ad features congressional testimony from Cheney, the Wyoming Republican who has publicly declared that Trump should never hold public office again. Still, Cheney faces her own primary election against a Trump-backed challenger next week in Wyoming. One of Trump’s top political targets this year, she is expected to lose. Anticipating a loss, Cheney’s allies suggest she may be better positioned to run for president in 2024, either as a Republican or independent. Trump’s allies are supremely confident about his ability to win the GOP’s presidential nomination in 2024. In fact, aides who had initially pushed him to launch his campaign after the November midterms are now encouraging him to announce sooner to help freeze out would-be Republican challengers. “It’s going to be very difficult for anyone to take the nomination away from him in 2024,” said Stephen Moore, a former Trump economic adviser who has spoken with Trump about his 2024 intentions. “He is running. That is a certainty.” Rep. Tom Rice, R-S.C., predicted that Trump would “lose in a landslide” if he sought the presidency again, adding that the former president’s overall grasp on the party is “eroding on the edges.” “In a normal election, you’ve got to win not just the base. You’ve got to win the middle, too, right, and maybe crossover on the other side,” said Rice, who lost his recent primary after voting in favor of Trump’s second impeachment. Rice warned that Trump far-right candidates could lead to unnecessary losses for the party in November. “Donald Trump is pushing things so far to the right,” he said in an interview. Meanwhile, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, eyeing a 2024 bid himself, warned against making bold political predictions two years before the Republican Party selects its next presidential nominee. “We’re sitting here in August of 2022,” Christie said in an interview. “My sense is there’s a lot of water over the dam still to come before anybody can determine anybody’s individual position in the primaries of ’24 — except to say that if Donald Trump runs, he will certainly be a factor.”

Three people were killed Wednesday when a house exploded in the southern Indiana city of Evansville, authorities said. David Anson, chief deputy coroner for Vanderburgh County, told The Associated Press that the identities of the people who died would not be released until the next of kin has been notified. Evansville Police Department spokeswoman Sgt. Anna Gray said at least one other injury was reported and that victim was taken to a local hospital for treatment. Evansville Fire Department Chief Mike Connelly said a total of 39 houses were damaged by the explosion at around 1 p.m. He said the department has not confirmed how many of the houses were occupied when the explosion happened because “some were too unstable to enter.” At least 11 of the 39 homes damaged are “uninhabitable,” Connelly told the Evansville Courier & Press. The cause of the explosion has not been determined, but the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives was investigating. A phone message seeking comment was left at the Evansville field office of the ATF. “Debris is strewn over a 100-foot (30-meter) radius,” including “typical construction materials” such as wooden boards, window glass and insulation, Connelly said. Aerial video posted on social media shows damage in a residential neighborhood with police and fire vehicles on the scene in Evansville, on the Kentucky border. Also read: Chief: 3 dead in Indiana mall shooting; witness kills gunman CenterPoint Energy, the local gas utility, was last called to the home in January 2018, Connelly said. CenterPoint issued a statement saying it “worked with first responders to secure the area.” “CenterPoint Energy is working closely with the Evansville Fire Department, State Fire Marshal and other agencies as the investigation of this incident continues,” the utility said. Jacki Baumgart, an office manager at Award World Trophies about two and a half blocks from the site of the explosion, said she and other employees in their building panicked when they heard the loud blast and saw smoke. “We thought a tree fell on the building or a car ran into the place,” Baumgart said. “Debris from the ceiling came down.” She continued: “Everybody here immediately ran out of the building. We thought the building was going to come down.” It was the second house explosion in the area in just over five years. A house explosion on June 27, 2017, killed two people and injured three others. Wednesday’s explosion also brought to mind a massive blast in 2012 that destroyed or damaged more than 80 homes on Indianapolis’ south side and killed two people. A man was convicted of tampering with a natural gas line at his then-girlfriend’s home in an attempt to commit insurance fraud, with the explosion killing two next-door neighbors. That man, his half-brother and girlfriend all received long prison sentences.

A fear of attacks that had rippled through Muslim communities nationwide after the fatal shootings of four Muslim men in Albuquerque gave way to shock and sadness when it turned out the suspect in the killings is one of their own.  Muhammad Syed, 51, was arrested late Monday after a traffic stop more than 100 miles (160 kilometers) from his Albuquerque home. The Afghan immigrant denied any connection to the crimes that shook the city and its small Muslim community. In court documents, in fact, he told police that he was so unnerved by the slayings that he was driving to Houston to find a new home for his family, which includes six children. But investigators said they have ample evidence to prove his guilt, though they have yet to uncover the motive for the ambush-style killings, the first of which was in November and then three between July 26 and last Friday. According to the criminal complaint, police determined that bullet casings found in Syed’s vehicle matched the caliber of the weapons believed to have been used in two of the killings and that casings found at the crime scenes were linked to guns found at Syed’s home and in his vehicle. Read: 4 dead after sheriff’s office helicopter crash in New Mexico Of the more than 200 tips police received, it was one from the Muslim community that led them to the Syed family, authorities said, noting that Syed knew the victims and “an interpersonal conflict may have led to the shootings.” The news of Syed’s arrest stunned Muslims in Albuquerque. “I wanted a little closure for the community, as we saw it going out of hand and people were really panicking. But, I’ll be honest with you, I was shocked,” said Samia Assed, a community organizer and member of the Islamic Center of New Mexico. She said she did not want “these heinous crimes to be in any way, in any capacity used to divide a community.” Salim Ansari, president of the Afghan Society of New Mexico, said he felt relief at the news that an arrest had been made. But he was especially taken back because he knew Syed through social gatherings and was dumbfounded to learn the accusations against him and that court documents showed three domestic violence cases against the man.  “We never knew,” he said. Ansari said he first met Syed and the family when he was invited into their home in 2020 to tell them about the local Afghan community and the group that he heads. The couple ended up joining the society as members. As recently as last month, Syed and his family brought food and joined a potluck gathering, Ansari said. “I don’t know what happened,” he said. On Wednesday, Syed made his first court appearance during a virtual arraignment. He was shackled and in a jumpsuit that said “HIGH RISK” on the back. His case was transferred to state District Court, where a judge will consider a motion by prosecutors to keep him detained without bond pending trial. “He is a very dangerous person, and the only way to protect the community is to hold the defendant in custody,” prosecutors said in court documents. Syed, through an interpreter, asked for permission to speak, but his attorney asked that the court not take any statements from him. He was not asked to enter a plea. Syed has lived in the United States for about five years. When interviewed by detectives, Syed said he had been with the special forces in Afghanistan and fought against the Taliban, according to a criminal complaint filed late Tuesday. Police said they were about to search Syed’s Albuquerque home on Monday when they saw him drive away in a Volkswagen Jetta that investigators believe was used in at least one of the slayings. In the complaint, authorities said a 9mm handgun was seized from his vehicle, and they found an AK-47-style rifle and a pistol of the same caliber at the family home while serving a search warrant. Syed bought the rifle and his son Shaheen Syed purchased the pistol at a local gun shop. On Wednesday, Shaheen Syed was charged by federal prosecutors with providing a false Florida address when he bought two rifles last year. He has denied any role in the killings and has not been charged in connection with them. He and another brother were interviewed by police on Monday. The first of the four people fatally shot was Mohammad Ahmadi, 62, an immigrant from from Afghanistan. Naeem Hussain, a 25-year-old man from Pakistan, was killed last Friday. His death came just days after those of Muhammad Afzaal Hussain, 27, and Aftab Hussein, 41, who were also from Pakistan and members of the same mosque. Ehsan Chahalmi, the brother-in-law of Naeem Hussain, said he was “a generous, kind, giving, forgiving and loving soul that has been taken away from us forever.” Investigators consider Syed to be the primary suspect in the deaths of Naeem Hussain and Ahmadi but have not yet filed charges in those cases. Albuquerque police said Wednesday that as long as the suspect is detained, homicide detectives will not rush the case. Police say they are looking at a number of possible motives. When asked at a news conference Tuesday if Muhammad Syed, a Sunni Muslim, was angry that his daughter married a Shiite Muslim, Deputy Police Cmdr. Kyle Hartsock did not respond directly. He said “motives are still being explored fully to understand what they are.” CNN interviewed Syed’s daughter shortly before the announcement of his arrest. She said her husband was friends with two of the men who were killed. She also acknowledged her father initially was upset about her 2018 marriage but recently had been more accepting. “My father is not a person who can kill somebody,” the woman told CNN, which did not disclose her identity to protect her safety. “My father has always talked about peace. That’s why we are here in the United States. We came from Afghanistan, from fighting, from shooting.” In 2017, a boyfriend of Syed’s daughter reported to police that Syed, his wife and one of their sons had pulled him out of a car, punching and kicking him before driving away, according to court documents. The boyfriend, who was found with a bloody nose, scratches and bruises, told police that he was attacked because they did not want her in a relationship with him. Syed was arrested in May 2018 after a fight with his wife turned violent, court documents said. Prosecutors said both cases were later dismissed after the victims declined to press charges. Syed also was arrested in 2020 after he was accused of refusing to pull over for police after running a traffic light, but that case was eventually dismissed, court documents said. Former FBI profiler Mary Ellen O’Toole said the crimes Syed is suspected of carrying out fit the definition of a serial killer even though Albuquerque police have not classified him as such. She said serial killers often have red flags like domestic violence or sexual assaults in their past that precede the killings. “People don’t wake up one morning and just become a serial killer,” she said. “We would go back and we would look at other crimes that were occurring in the area before the serial murders occurred. Because there’s periods of time where they have to practice being violent. And that practice can begin at home.” O’Toole said motives for the four killings may have varied from victim to victim. O’Toole said she would want to know what prompted three killings in quick succession eight months after the first. “This behavior that we’re seeing in this case is cold-blooded, pre-meditated, and it involves hunting behavior – actually hunting human beings – which is probably as cold as it can get,” she said.

Ukraine said Wednesday that nine Russian warplanes were destroyed in a deadly string of explosions at an air base in Crimea that appeared to be the result of a Ukrainian attack, which would represent a significant escalation in the war. Russia denied any aircraft were damaged in Tuesday’s blasts — or that any attack took place. But satellite photos clearly showed at least seven fighter planes at the base had been blown up and others probably damaged. Ukrainian officials stopped short of publicly claiming responsibility for the explosions, while mocking Russia’s explanation that a careless smoker might have caused ammunition at the Saki air base to catch fire and blow up. Analysts also said that explanation doesn’t make sense and that the Ukrainians could have used anti-ship missiles to strike the base. If Ukrainian forces were, in fact, responsible for the blasts, it would be the first known major attack on a Russian military site on the Crimean Peninsula, which was seized from Ukraine by the Kremlin in 2014. Russian warplanes have used Saki to strike areas in Ukraine’s south. Crimea holds huge strategic and symbolic significance for both sides. The Kremlin’s demand that Ukraine recognize Crimea as part of Russia has been one of its key conditions for ending the fighting, while Ukraine has vowed to drive the Russians from the peninsula and all other occupied territories. The explosions, which killed one person and wounded 14, sent tourists fleeing in panic as plumes of smoke rose over the coastline nearby. Video showed shattered windows and holes in the brickwork of some buildings. Read:Cold showers, no lights: Europe saves as Russian gas wanes One tourist, Natalia Lipovaya, said that “the earth was gone from under my feet” after the powerful blasts. “I was so scared,” she said. Sergey Milochinsky, a local resident, recalled hearing a roar and seeing a mushroom cloud from his window. “Everything began to fall around, collapse,” he said. Crimea’s regional leader, Sergei Aksyonov, said some 250 residents were moved to temporary housing after dozens of apartment buildings were damaged. Russian authorities sought to downplay the explosions, saying Wednesday that all hotels and beaches were unaffected on the peninsula, which is a popular tourist destination for many Russians. But video posted on social media showed long lines of slowly moving cars on the road to Russia as tourists headed for home. A Ukrainian presidential adviser, Oleksiy Arestovych, cryptically said that the blasts were either caused by Ukrainian-made long-range weapons or the work of Ukrainian guerrillas operating in Crimea. A Ukrainian parliament member, Oleksandr Zavitnevich, said the airfield was rendered unusable. He reported on Facebook that it housed fighter jets, tactical reconnaissance aircraft and military transport planes. Satellite photos dated Wednesday issued by Planet Labs PBC showed wreckage in spots on the airfield where the company’s photos a day earlier showed numerous warplanes. “Official Kyiv has kept mum about it, but unofficially the military acknowledges that it was a Ukrainian strike,” Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov said. The base is at least 200 kilometers (about 125 miles) from the closest Ukrainian position. Zhdanov suggested that Ukrainian forces could have struck it with Ukrainian or Western-supplied anti-ship missiles that have the necessary range. The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said it couldn’t independently determine what caused the explosions but noted that simultaneous blasts in two places at the base probably rule out an accidental fire but not sabotage or a missile attack.  But it added: “The Kremlin has little incentive to accuse Ukraine of conducting strikes that caused the damage since such strikes would demonstrate the ineffectiveness of Russian air defense systems.” During the war, the Kremlin has reported numerous fires and explosions on Russian territory near the Ukrainian border, blaming some of them on Ukrainian strikes. Ukrainian authorities have mostly kept silent about the incidents, preferring to keep the world guessing. Neither side has released much information about their own casualties. In his nightly video address Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed nearly 43,000 Russian soldiers had been killed. Colin Kahl, U.S. undersecretary of defense for policy, estimated Monday that Russian forces have sustained up to 80,000 deaths and injuries in the fighting. He did not break down the figure with an estimate of forces killed or provide a Ukrainian casualty count. In other developments, Russian forces shelled areas across Ukraine on Tuesday night into Wednesday, including the central region of Dnipropetrovsk, where 13 people were killed, according to the region’s governor, Valentyn Reznichenko. Reznichenko said the Russians fired at the city of Marganets and a nearby village. Dozens of residential buildings, two schools and several administrative buildings were damaged. “It was a terrible night,” Reznichenko said. “It’s very hard to take bodies from under debris. We are facing a cruel enemy who engages in daily terror against our cities and villages.” In Ukraine’s east, where fighting has raged for eight years, a Russian attack on the center of the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region killed seven, wounded six and damaged stores, homes and apartment buildings, setting off fires, Ukraine’s prosecutor general said on Telegram. Bakhmut is a key target for Russian forces as they advance on regional hubs. In the city of Donetsk, which has been under the control of Russia-backed separatists since 2014, Ukrainian shelling hit a brewery, killing one person and wounding two, the separatists’ emergency service said. It said the shelling late Wednesday caused a leak of toxic ammonia and warned people to stay inside and breathe through cotton gauze. Two residents of the village of Staryi Saltiv in the Kharkiv region in the northeast were killed Wednesday in Russian shelling, police reported. In the country’s southeast, Moscow’s forces continued shelling the city of Nikopol across the Dnieper River from the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia power station, the biggest nuclear plant in Europe. Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of shelling it, stoking international fears of a catastrophe. On Wednesday, foreign ministers of the Group of Seven industrialized democracies demanded that Russia immediately hand back full control of the plant to Ukraine. They said they are “profoundly concerned” about the risk of a nuclear accident with far-reaching consequences.

Americans may finally be catching a break from relentlessly surging prices — if just a slight one — even as inflation is expected to remain painfully high for months. Thanks largely to falling gas prices, the government’s inflation report for July, to be released Wednesday morning, is expected to show that prices jumped 8.7% from a year earlier — still a sizzling pace but a slowdown from the 9.1% year-over-year figure in June, which was the highest in four decades. The forecast by economists, if it proves correct, would raise hopes that inflation might have peaked and that the run of punishingly higher prices is beginning to ease slightly. There have been other hopeful signs, too, that the pace of inflation may be moderating. At the same time, an array of other economic developments are threatening to keep intensifying inflation pressures. The pace of hiring is robust and average wages are up sharply. And even as gas prices fall, inflation in services such as health care, rents and restaurant meals is accelerating. Price changes in services tend to be sticky and don’t ease as quickly as they do for gas, food or other goods. Those trends suggest that overall inflation may not drop significantly anytime soon. Read: US inflation surges again in June, raising risks for economy President Joe Biden has already pointed to falling gas prices as a sign that his policies — such as releases of oil from the nation’s strategic reserve — are helping combat the higher costs that have hammered household budgets, particularly for lower-income families. Yet Republicans will push ongoing high inflation as a top campaign issue in this fall’s elections, with polls showing that high prices have driven Biden’s approval ratings down sharply. On Friday, the House is poised to give final congressional approval to a revived tax-and-climate package pushed by Biden and Democratic lawmakers. The bill, which among other things aims to ease pharmaceutical prices by letting the government negotiate Medicare’s drug costs, is expected to cut the federal budget deficit by $300 billion over a decade. Yet economists say the measure, which its proponents have titled the Inflation Reduction Act, will have only a minimal effect on inflation over the next several years, though it could could slow price increases a bit more later this decade. Economists have forecast that Wednesday’s inflation report will show that consumer prices rose 0.2% from June to July, according to FactSet. That would mark a steep drop from the 1.3% jump from May to June. But excluding the volatile food and energy categories, so-called core inflation likely stayed high. Economists project that core prices rose 0.5% from in July, still a sharp rise, though down from the 0.7% jump in June. Such an increase would leave core prices 6.1% higher than a year ago, up from a 5.9% year-over year increase in June. If overall inflation did ease in July, it will largely reflect a 16% plunge in prices at the gas pump from their peak in mid-June, when gas hit a national average of $5 a gallon. The average price fell to about $4.20 by the end of July and was just $4.03 by Tuesday. The continuing drop means that lower gas prices will likely pull inflation down further in August. Other items may have also helped lower price gains in July: Food costs, though they likely kept rising, probably did so at a slower pace than in June. Prices for used cars, clothing and rental cars may have fallen, too. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said the Fed needs to see a series of declining monthly core inflation readings before it would considering pausing its interest rate increases. Though the Fed more closely tracks a different inflation measure, it also monitors the figures in Wednesday’s report, known as the consumer price index. The Fed has raised its benchmark short-term rate at its past four rate-setting meetings, including a three-quarter point hike in both June and July — the first increases that large since 1994. A blockbuster jobs report for July that the government issued Friday — with 528,000 jobs added, rising wages and an unemployment rate that matched a half-century low of 3.5% — solidified expectations that the Fed will announce yet another three-quarter-point hike when it next meets in September. Financial markets are betting that the Fed will raise rates several more times this year, to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, but will ultimately have to cut rates by next summer because traders expect the higher rates to cause a recession. Some trends do point to lower future inflation. The supply chain snags that have elevated prices for cars, furniture, appliances and other goods are easing. The number of ships waiting to be unloaded at the Los Angeles/Long Beach port has fallen for six straight months, according to Oxford Economics. Shipping costs have generally leveled off or declined, including for trucking and rail services, Oxford said, though they remain high. And a drop in Americans’ expectations for future inflation may also keep higher prices from becoming entrenched. Such expectations can be self-fulfilling: If people believe inflation will stay high or worsen, they are likely to take steps — such as demanding higher pay — that can then send prices higher in a self-perpetuating cycle. Companies often raise prices to offset higher their higher labor costs. But a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, released Monday, showed that Americans now expect lower inflation in the next few years than they did a month ago. Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management, said lower inflation expectations may allow the Fed to react less aggressively to reports, such as last month’s burst of hiring, that suggest the economy is still strong and that inflation could remain high. “It’s a modestly good sign,” Ma said of the inflation expectations data. “It gives them a little bit of room to not take a more aggressive approach.”

Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes won the Democratic Senate primary on Tuesday and will face two-term Republican Sen. Ron Johnson in what is expected to be one of the country’s most competitive races for control of the U.S. Senate. Barnes’ top rivals dropped out of the race late last month and backed the former legislator, a sign of Democrats’ intense focus on defeating Johnson, who is one of former President Donald Trump’s most vocal supporters. The Senate is currently split 50-50, with Democrats relying on the vice president to break ties, and the Wisconsin contest is one of the few races seen a toss-up in November. Voters also were choosing a Republican nominee for Wisconsin governor who could reshape how elections are conducted in the marquee battleground, where Trump is still pressing to overturn his 2020 loss and backing candidates he sees as allies. Trump has endorsed businessman Tim Michels, a self-described outsider who has put $12 million into his own campaign, against former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch, who has support from former Vice President Mike Pence and ex-Gov. Scott Walker. Both candidates falsely claim the 2020 election was rigged, though Kleefisch has said decertifying the results is “not constitutional,” while Michels said “everything will be on the table.” The race to face Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is another proxy war between Trump and Pence, one-time partners now pursuing different futures for the Republican Party. They also backed opposing GOP rivals in primaries in Arizona and Georgia — swing states that like Wisconsin are expected to be critical in the 2024 presidential race, when both men could be on the ballot. Read: GOP rallies around Trump following FBI search of his estate The primary comes a day after FBI agents searched Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate as part of an investigation into whether he took classified records from the White House to his Florida residence, two people familiar with the matter told The Associated Press. Trump also has backed a little-known challenger to the state’s most powerful Republican, state Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, who has rejected the former president’s pressure to decertify the 2020 results. Tuesday’s outcomes have far-reaching consequences beyond Wisconsin, a state that is almost evenly split between Republicans and Democrats and where 2022 will be seen as a bellwether for the 2024 presidential race. The person elected governor this fall will be in office for the presidential election and will be able to sign or veto changes to election laws passed by the Republican-controlled Legislature. The next governor and U.S. senator also may sway decisions on issues from abortion to education and taxes. “We’re a 50-50 state and so every race in Wisconsin, just by definition, is going to be decided by a few percentage points one way or another,” said former Gov. Jim Doyle, a Democrat. “And those few percentage points in Wisconsin may well determine what the course of the nation is in the coming years.” Elsewhere Tuesday, voters in Vermont — the only state to never have a woman in its congressional delegation — chose a woman, Becca Balint, as the Democratic nominee for the state’s lone House seat. She is favored in the race to replace Rep. Peter Welch, who won the Democratic nomination for the Senate seat long held by Patrick Leahy, who is retiring. In Connecticut, Republicans were picking an opponent to face two-term Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal. And Minnesota Republicans chose Dr. Scott Jensen, a COVID-19 vaccine skeptic endorsed by the state GOP, to face Gov. Tim Walz. But the most-watched races are in Wisconsin, where Trump has kept up his pressure campaign to cancel President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory. Biden won by nearly 21,000 votes, four years after Trump also narrowly won the state by roughly the same margin. The 2020 outcome has been upheld in two partial recounts, a nonpartisan audit, a review by a conservative law firm and multiple lawsuits. Both Michels and Kleefisch have said overturning the 2020 election results is not a priority. But they have said they would dismantle the bipartisan commission that runs Wisconsin elections and would support prohibitions on voters having someone else turn in their absentee ballots, as well as ballot drop boxes located anywhere other than staffed clerk offices. Evers has made voting and elections a focus of his own campaign, telling voters he’s the only candidate who will defend democracy and “we are that close to not having our vote count in the state of Wisconsin.” Kleefisch is a former TV reporter who served with Walker for two terms, including when he effectively ended collective bargaining for most public employees in the state in 2011, drawing huge protests and a failed recall attempt. She says she is the best prepared to win statewide in November and to enact conservative priorities, including investing more in police, expanding school choice programs and implementing a flat income tax. Read: Afghan man charged in killing of 2 Muslims in Albuquerque During a campaign stop with Kleefisch last week, Pence said no other gubernatorial candidate in the U.S. is “more capable, more experienced, or a more proven conservative.” Michels is co-owner of Wisconsin’s largest construction company and has touted his work to build his family’s business. He lost the 2004 Senate race to Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold, and has been a major donor to GOP politicians. At a rally on Friday, Trump praised Michels as an “incredible success story.” He criticized Kleefisch as part of the “failed establishment” and also took aim at Vos. He told supporters that Michels will win the primary “easily” and that he’s the better choice to defeat Evers. Michels pledged that “we are going to have election integrity here in Wisconsin.” He also said he will bring “law and order” back to Wisconsin, criticized Evers’ handling of schools and blamed Biden for rising prices. Voter Gary Steinbrecher, 62, said he cast his ballot Tuesday for Kleefisch because she opposes abortion and has “been around for a long time.” He also thinks she has the best chance of defeating Evers. “I think she would appeal to the suburban women voters more than the other candidates,” said Steinbrecher, who is semi-retired. Franklin Szpot, 42, voted for Michels. He said he appreciated that Michels is a business owner and that he served in the U.S. Army. Szpot also liked the candidate’s “to the point” commercials. “It just seems like he is a no-nonsense kind of guy and that’s the kind of person we need in office right now,” he said. GOP state Rep. Tim Ramthun is also making a long-shot bid for governor, and has made rescinding Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes for Biden the centerpiece of his campaign. The candidate Trump endorsed to take on Vos, Adam Steen, has said he would decertify Biden’s victory. The race for Senate already was seen as a fight between Johnson and Barnes, who would be Wisconsin’s first Black senator if elected.

The 12 months since the chaotic end to the U.S. war in Afghanistan haven’t been easy for Joe Biden. The new president was flying high early in the summer of 2021, the American electorate largely approving of Biden’s performance and giving him high marks for his handling of the economy and the coronavirus pandemic. But come August, the messy U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan seemed to mark the start of things going sideways for him. It was a disquieting bookend to the 20-year American war: the U.S.-backed Afghan government collapsed, a grisly bombing killed 13 U.S. troops and 170 others, and thousands of desperate Afghans descended on Kabul’s airport in search of a way out before the final U.S. cargo planes departed over the Hindu Kush. The disastrous drawdown was, at the time, the biggest crisis that the relatively new administration had faced. It left sharp questions about Biden and his team’s competence and experience — the twin pillars central to his campaign for the White House. As the one-year anniversary of the end of the Afghan war nears, the episode — a turning point in Biden’s presidency — continues to resonate as he struggles to shake dismal polling numbers and lift American confidence in his administration ahead of November’s critical midterm elections. Read: China extends threatening military exercises around Taiwan “It was a pivotal moment that he hasn’t ever really recovered from,” said Christopher Borick, director of the Institute of Public Opinion at Muhlenberg College in Pennsylvania. “Things were going really well in terms of how voters viewed him in terms of bringing stability to the economy and how the government addressed the pandemic, issues that are higher priorities to the American electorate than the war in Afghanistan. But Afghanistan cracked that image of competency, and he hasn’t ever really been able to repair it.” The Afghanistan debacle was just the start of a series of crises for Biden. As Biden was still dealing with fallout from the Afghan withdrawal last summer, COVID-19 cases began spiking again. Layered over that in coming were months were strains on the economy caused by inflation, labor shortages and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The sum of it left Americans weary. In the weeks before Afghanistan went sideways, Biden was riding high. His approval rating stood at 59% in a July 2021 poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. An AP-NORC poll conducted last month put his rating at 36%. White House officials and Biden allies hope the president is now at another turning point — this one in his favor. The administration has recently racked up high-profile wins on Capitol Hill, including passage of the $280 billion CHIPS and Science Act designed to boost the U.S. semiconductor industry. Congress also passed a program to treat veterans who may have been exposed to toxic substances from burning trash pits on U.S. military bases. And over the weekend the White House sealed the deal on far-reaching legislation addressing health care and climate change that also raises taxes on high earners and large corporations, a package the administration says will also help mitigate the impact of high inflation. The legislative victories followed Biden ordering the CIA drone strike in Kabul that killed al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahri, who along with Osama bin Laden masterminded the 9/11 attacks. Biden says the operation validates the decision to withdraw from Afghanistan. “I made the decision to end America’s longest war ... and that we’d be able to protect America and root out terrorism in Afghanistan or anywhere in the world,” Biden told a Democratic National Committee virtual rally last week. “And that’s exactly what we did.” Biden had other big legislative wins after the Afghanistan debacle. In November, he signed into law a $1 trillion infrastructure deal to fund rebuilding of roads, bridges and other big projects In April, the Senate confirmed Biden’s history-making U.S. Supreme Court nominee, Ketanji Jackson Brown, who became the first Black woman to serve on the high court. And in June, Biden notched another win as Congress passed the most significant changes to gun laws in nearly 30 years. But those legislative accomplishments weren’t rewarded with a boost in his standing with voters. Eric Schultz, a senior adviser to former President Barack Obama, argues that there’s reason for the White House to hope that momentum is shifting with the recent legislative wins. “The question is, ‘What did Democrats deliver when they swept into power in 2020?’” Schultz said. “And I think for Democrats running in November, we have an even better answer to that question than we did just a few weeks ago.” Schultz added that the operation that killed al-Zawahri also offered strong evidence that Biden’s instincts as commander in chief were correct. “Nobody thought Afghanistan was going to be a panacea of rainbows and unicorns after we left,” Schultz said. “But the president made the right decision that based on U.S. national security interests we could execute our counterterrorism imperatives without having thousands of troops on the ground.” Read: China keeps up pressure on Taiwan with 4th day of drills William Howell, a political scientist and director of the Center for Effective Government at the University of Chicago, said the biggest drag on Biden’s standing with Americans has been runaway inflation and an unrelenting pandemic. But the Afghanistan debacle became a defining moment in the Biden presidency, he said, marking when the American electorate began questioning Biden’s ability to fulfill his campaign promise to usher in an era of greater empathy and collaboration with allies after four years of President Donald Trump’s “America first” approach. “Afghanistan remains significant going forward as he tries to make that central 2020 argument of competency,” Howell said. “The images of Afghanistan are going to remain Exhibit A in the other side’s rebuttal of the competency claim.” The administration, for its part, has pushed back that lost in the criticism of the U.S. withdrawal effort is that in the war’s final days, the United States pulled off the largest airlift in American history, evacuating some 130,000 U.S. citizens, citizens of allied countries, and Afghans who worked with the United States. Biden continues to face criticism from immigrant refugee advocates that the administration has fallen short in resettling Afghans who assisted the U.S. war effort. As of last month, more than 74,000 Afghan applicants remained in the pipeline for special immigrant visas that help military interpreters and others who worked on government-funded contracts move to the United States and pave the way for them to receive a green card. That total counts only the principal applicant and does not include spouses and children. More than 10,000 of that pool of applicants had received a critical chief of mission approval, according to State Department data. Days after the unexpected fall of Kabul last year, national security adviser Jake Sullivan promised the White House would “conduct an extensive hot wash” and “look at every aspect” of the withdrawal from top to bottom.” But that effort has dragged on and is not expected to be completed before the Aug. 30 anniversary of Biden ending the war. The White House has yet to detail how the president will mark the anniversary of a war that cost the lives of more than 2,400 U.S. troops and wounded nearly 21,000 more. Republicans are certain to resurrect criticism of the administration’s drawdown. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell noted to reporters that while taking out al-Zawahri was a triumph for the intelligence community, the moment also confirmed that the Taliban — ousted from power by U.S. forces after 9/11 to deny al-Qaida a haven — are once again harboring al-Qaida. “It is noteworthy where Zawahri was: In Kabul. So al-Qaida is back as a result of the Taliban being back in power,” McConnell said “That precipitous decision to withdraw a year ago produced the return of the conditions that were there before 9/11.”

Taiwan’s foreign minister said Tuesday that China aims to control the East and South China Seas via the Taiwan Strait, describing a greater ambition to upend the Asia-Pacific status quo and prevent nations from aiding the self-governing island. Foreign Minister Joseph Wu spoke at a news conference in Taipei as Taiwan began live-fire military drills to test combat readiness in response to ongoing Chinese exercises that have included launching missiles into waters off the island of 23 million people. China says its drills were prompted by the visit to the island last week by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, but Wu said China was using her visit as a pretext. China also banned some Taiwanese food imports after the visit and cut off dialogue with the U.S. on several issues including climate change. Read: China extends threatening military exercises around Taiwan He said China aims to upend the status quo and annex Taiwan, the self-governing island republic it claims as its own territory. The drills are a rehearsal for an invasion of the island in which it seeks to prevent other countries coming to the island’s assistance, Wu said. The exercises also show China’s “geostrategic ambition beyond Taiwan,” Wu said. “China has no right to interfere in or alter” the Taiwanese people’s democratic process or interaction with other nations, he said. Read: Rains in S. Korea turn Seoul’s roads to rivers, leave 7 dead Taiwan and the mainland are separate jurisdictions with “neither subordinate to the other,” Wu said. Since Thursday, China has sent military ships and planes across the midline in the Taiwan Strait and launched missiles into waters surrounding the island. Ignoring calls to calm tensions, Beijing has extended the exercises that amount to a blockade without announcing when they will end.

The first of the ships to leave Ukraine under a deal to unblock grain supplies and stave off a potential global food crisis arrived at its destination in Turkey on Monday. The Turkey-flagged Polarnet docked at Derince port in the Gulf of Izmit after setting off from Chornomorsk on Aug. 5 laden with 12,000 tons of corn. “This sends a message of hope to every family in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia: Ukraine won’t abandon you,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted. “If Russia sticks to its obligations, the ‘grain corridor’ will keep maintaining global food security.” Read: UN food price index dropped in July for fourth month A total of 12 ships have now been authorized to sail under the grain deal between Ukraine and Russia, which was brokered by Turkey and the United Nations — ten outbound and two headed for Ukraine. Some 322,000 tons of agricultural products have left Ukrainian ports, the bulk of it corn but also sunflower oil and soya.