Speakers at a discussion said Bangladesh needs to understand the dynamics of the ongoing conflict within Chin and Rakhine state, noting that Rakhine is also important for India, China and other major powers of the world.
"We need to understand overall developing situation or conflict situation in Myanmar with a particular focus on Rakhine and Chin," said BIPSS President Major General (Retd) A N M Muniruzzaman.
The Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) hosted the policy circle discussion titled "Is Myanmar Unraveling? Implications for Bangladesh and the Region" at The Westin Dhaka on February 22nl.
The event brought together experts to dissect the complex socio-political fabric of Myanmar and assess the potential repercussions across South Asia.
In his welcome remarks, Shafqat Munir, BIPSS Senior Research Fellow, set the tone for the event, highlighting the urgency of understanding the dynamics in Myanmar, beyond the pressing Rohingya crisis.
The moderator of the event Muniruzzaman provided an introduction, contextualising Myanmar's pivotal role within the region and its ongoing internal strife marked by the emergence of the Brotherhood Alliance last October.
Rakhine is not only important for Bangladesh, but it is also important for China, India and other major powers of the world, said Muniruzzaman.
"The reason it is important to China is because they have a deep sea port in Kyaukphyu which is vitally important for China for its energy security. For India, it has got the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project for which the bordering state of Chin and Rakhine is vitally important," he said.
The panelists Md. Touhid Hossain, former foreign secretary ; Major General Md Shahidul Haque, former defence attaché to Myanmar and former ambassador to Libya, and Sudeep Chakravarti, director of the Center for South Asian Studies (C-SAS) at ULAB and author of 'The Eastern Gate', brought their perspectives to the fore.
Touhid Hossain characterizmsed the situation as a nascent civil war, with the Tatmadaw facing both armed insurgencies and civilian opposition.
"This is the first time the Bamans have taken arms against the military’, he said.
He delved into the geopolitical implications, noting the strategic manoeuvrings of China and the U.S. in the region, and stressed the crucial nature of resource control in the conflict.
Hossain also emphasised the strategic importance of resource control and the Rohingya issue for Bangladesh.
In his opening remarks, Major General Md Shahidul Haque provided a comprehensive analysis of the current situation in Myanmar, addressing the distinct dynamics at play along its borders and the contrasting nature of conflicts in the eastern and western regions.
He firmly asserted that Myanmar would not disintegrate, contrary to some speculations. Instead, he envisioned a scenario where the Tatmadaw would eventually renegotiate with the EAOs, emphasizing the importance of understanding the unique dimensions of conflict across Myanmar's diverse regions.
According to Haque, the dynamics of fighting in the eastern border differ significantly from those on the western border, with each region presenting its own set of challenges and implications for stability.
He highlighted that a setback in one region does not necessarily spell doom for Myanmar as a whole.
He stressed the urgency of opening communication channels with the Arakan Army.
He suggested that engaging with the Arakan Army could be a strategic move for India, especially in the context of the Kaladan project.
A project which Major General Haque has declared effectively dead, illustrating the impact of regional dynamics on international investments and the importance of strategic communication and alliances.
Sudeep Chakravarti highlighted the deepening geopolitical crisis in Myanmar, focusing on China's strategic investments in the country's energy sector through pipelines delivering oil and gas to southwestern China.
He emphasised China's long-standing practice of nurturing relationships with ethnic groups in Myanmar to safeguard these energy routes.
In contrast, India's engagement, heavily reliant on the Tatmadaw, has been criticized for its delayed response to the changing dynamics, despite efforts to bolster border security.
Chakravarti also pointed out the broader implications of Myanmar's instability, including the risk of conflict and weaponry spilling over into neighbouring countries, particularly Bangladesh.
He underscored the importance of vigilance in Bangladesh, considering the potential for violence and the spread of weapons across its borders.
Chakravarti's analysis calls for a strategic reassessment by neighbouring countries, especially Bangladesh, in the face of Myanmar's unfolding turmoil and its regional implications.
The audience’s questions facilitated a discussion on several fronts, including energy security, ASEAN's diplomatic potential, and the contours of Bangladesh's foreign policy towards Myanmar.
The conversation touched upon the implications of the fact that no ethnic group in Myanmar possesses naval capabilities, raising questions about the balance of power and security dynamics in the area.
Moreover, there was a consensus that discussions about the Rohingya crisis, while important, have dominated conversations to the extent that they might hinder engagement with ASEAN.
It was iterated that ASEAN should play a bigger role in the crisis.
The audience also raised the possibility of resettlement of Rohingyas within ASEAN.
The interactive session also underscored the imperative for Bangladesh to adopt a proactive, inventive diplomatic stance in navigating the complexities of regional politics.
By identifying and aligning with connective interests, Bangladesh can enhance its strategic position and foster a more secure and prosperous future.
As the discussion concluded, Major General Muniruzzaman called for imaginative diplomatic efforts and expressed gratitude towards the panellists for their deep dive into the intricate dynamics at play.
The event not only provided a platform for rigorous analysis but also underscored BIPSS's dedication to enriching the discourse on peace and security in South Asia, evidenced by its commitment to hosting monthly policy dialogues.
A broad spectrum of diplomats, scholars, and media professionals joined the event.
BIPSS says it remains committed to fostering such critical discussions, contributing to the broader understanding of peace and security in South Asia.