Climate-driven temperature changes are on track to cause about 430,000 more deaths annually by 2050-with 10 times more deaths occurring in poor countries than in richer countries, according to a new report released on Monday.
How many of those lives can be saved largely depends on access to energy, particularly the electricity needed for cooling.
Yet, a new Climate Impact Lab report finds that many of the regions most impacted by extreme heat will also lack the resources to power the cooling needed to adapt.
"Bangladesh is a clear example of why electricity access and electricity use are not the same thing. Nearly the whole country already has power access, yet people in the hardest-hit regions are not using much more of it, even as heat deaths there are projected to climb. Having a connection is not the same as increasing how much power gets used. That gap is what this report points to," said Ashwin Rode, Director, Scientific Research, Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago and Fellow at the Climate Impact Lab.
Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and the Milton Friedman Distinguished Service Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago said air conditioning is a life saver, and climate change will no doubt lead to more AC adoption in today’s wealthy countries.
"Our research finds, however, that in too many countries around the world people will not be able to respond in the same way. The result is one of climate’s great cruelties-lots of death in the very countries that have contributed the least to climate change,” Greenstone said.
"These findings are a clarion bell that many countries do not have much time to improve the functioning of their electricity markets so they deliver inexpensive and reliable energy and identify other successful adaptations that can save lives.”
The report finds that today only the world's richest have the resources needed to power cooling.
As the world warms, many middle-income countries will see their economies grow enough and their energy markets mature enough to support greater consumption of electricity and access to cooling.
Electricity used for cooling is projected to grow seven times more in middle-income than in low-income countries due to climate change.
In fact, the growth of electricity use per person due to a warming climate in low-income countries is projected to be so small it would only be enough to power a single LED bulb for four months.
The same poor countries projected to see so little increase in electricity also tend to be hotter than other countries.
The report identifies areas in 18 countries—home to 676 million people—that are trapped in this deadly combination of extreme heat and lack of cooling.
Due to hotter temperatures and little projected increase in energy consumption, around 377,000 people in these areas are set to die annually by 2050.
All of these people live in either low-income or lower middle-income countries today, mostly in northern sub-Saharan Africa such as Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Chad.
The rest live in Southern Asia, including Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar.
These trapped countries sit in stark contrast to their wealthier neighbors. For example, countries across the Gulf like Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudia Arabia are equally as hot as sub-Saharan Africa.
But Gulf countries consume much more electricity for cooling and are projected to have big increases, leading to far fewer deaths.
Take Niger and Saudi Arabia. The projected increase in electricity use per person in Niger will be 1/9th that of Saudi Arabia, and communities in Niger will lose 27,000 more lives annually in 2050 due to a warmer climate than its wealthier counterpart.
“We’ve identified the places most at risk of seeing more people die from the heat and least able to power up ACs to save them, so people and governments can zero in on saving the greatest number of lives,” said Ashwin Rode, a fellow at the Climate Impact Lab and director of scientific research at the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC).
“Communities will need to find ways to protect people from heat like improved energy access, employing heat early warning systems and action plans, expanded healthcare access, and targeted social programs. But as of now, many adaptation approaches remain untested. We’re working to change that.”
The Climate Impact Lab is developing a global playbook of data-driven, adaptation priorities and tested adaptation strategies for funders national and local governments, and the people that will increasingly face climate risks.
The approaches proven thus far to be effective are available in the Lab’s Adaptation Inventory.
This report, with a focus on energy use, is the second in the Lab’s Adaptation Roadmap series that takes as its starting point the urgent need to embrace adaptation as a central part of the strategy to confront climate change, alongside greenhouse gas emissions mitigation.
The Climate Impact Lab’s global network of economists, climate scientists, data engineers, and risk analysts are identifying where climate adaptations are most needed and what investments will deliver the greatest benefits to communities.