Bangladesh's deepening energy crisis has pushed the country's energy import bill to $10.63 billion in FY25-26, up 107 percent year-on-year, while stalling nearly Tk35,000 crore in industrial investment across 1,857 pending gas-connection applications, according to a study jointly presented by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) and Policy Exchange Bangladesh on Sunday.
The presentation, titled "Bangladesh's Energy Security Challenge: Powering a More Competitive Business Climate," was delivered by Hassib Hasan, Senior Associate at Policy Exchange Bangladesh, drawing on the Bangladesh Business Climate Index (BBX), a joint MCCI-Policy Exchange initiative launched in 2021 to track business-related challenges across the country's eight divisions.
The study found the country's business infrastructure score has declined as reliability, rather than physical access, has become the binding constraint on firms.
It said 74.2 percent of surveyed businesses reported experiencing power outages "sometimes," while 19 percent said they often had to make informal payments to secure utility connections. Only 20.1 percent observed any structural or regulatory improvement in infrastructure delivery.
According to the study, national daily gas demand stood at 3,800 mmcfd against an effective supply of only 2,420 mmcfd, a shortfall of 1,380 mmcfd, or 36 percent of demand.
Power generation and fertiliser production are being shielded first, it said, leaving CNG stations and industry to absorb the deepest cuts, with CNG supply meeting just 20 percent of demand.
The supply crunch was traced to a bottleneck in liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, with the Excelerate floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU), with a capacity of 600 mmcfd, shut since a fire on July 21 and only partially restored.
The study noted that combined import capacity at Maheshkhali is running far below its roughly 1,050 mmcfd potential, while only two of three targeted LNG cargoes were secured in three tender rounds held in August, at rising prices. Domestic gas production, it added, has declined for nine consecutive years.
Load-shedding data cited in the presentation showed some of the worst-hit districts facing 12-14 hours of power cuts a day. Patuakhali was named among the most severely affected areas, while Chattogram airport experienced 10-12 power cuts daily and industrial production capacity there fell by around 25 percent.
In Gaziupur, factories are shedding load for six hours daily between 3:00pm and 8:00pm, and in Mymensingh's Ishwarganj, a week-long outage reportedly triggered an attack on the local Power Development Board (PDB) office.
Industrial clusters in Narsingdi, Gazipur and Narayanganj were among the hardest hit, the study said. In Narsingdi, home to more than 3,000 textile and dyeing mills supplying about 70 percent of the country's local fabric demand, more than 300 factories have halted operations, with some now burning wood to fire boilers.
In Gazipur, gas supply is meeting only 45 percent of demand, while in Narayanganj, the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA) reported about 900 of 1,850 member factories idled.
The study said Bangladesh's import dependency on primary energy has climbed from 47.7 percent four years ago to 62.5 percent today, citing data from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), even as Asian spot LNG prices have nearly doubled, from $10.5 per MMBtu in January to $25.3 per MMBtu in August, driven by Middle East conflict, Qatari supply disruption and early European winter stockpiling.
Manufacturing growth slowed to 2.86 percent in FY25-26, down from 3.71 percent a year earlier, the presentation showed, while capacity-charge payments for idle power plants are projected to exceed Tk48,000 crore this fiscal year.
It said 43 percent of the full-year FY27 LNG subsidy allocation, Tk47 billion of Tk110 billion, was spent in just 1.5 months, nine times last year's pace, and retail sugar prices rose about 7 percent in a single week as gas-starved refineries cut output.
The study identified reliability, affordability, resilience, investment confidence and widening sectoral scope as five converging risk factors, noting the crisis has spread beyond power-intensive industry into pharmaceuticals, textiles, ceramics, sugar refining and cottage, micro, small and medium enterprises (CMSMEs).
Among near-term recommendations, the study called for prioritised and predictable gas and power rationing schedules for industrial and export zones, expanded LNG import and storage infrastructure toward a strategic reserve of at least seven days, and a diversified generation mix incorporating renewables, efficiency upgrades and a long-term role for nuclear power.
For the medium to long term, it recommended accelerating domestic gas exploration to reverse the nine-year production decline, diversifying LNG procurement through multiple FSRUs and long-term government-to-government contracts, reforming the capacity-charge structure, and strengthening grid and transmission networks to close the supply-demand gap projected beyond 2031.
The study stressed that energy security must be treated as a strategic economic priority rather than merely a utility issue, warning that officials estimate at least two years will be needed to durably resolve the power and gas shortfall.