Nearly a million Rohingyas remain stuck in Bangladesh, with little hope of going home soon, as violence rises in the camps and international agencies trim their assistance, the International Crisis Group said on Wednesday.
Donors should scale the aid back up, while Dhaka should modify its approach to allow for long-term planning, said the independent organisation working to prevent wars and shape policies that will build a more peaceful world.
"Six years after most of them fled Myanmar’s Rakhine State, the almost one million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh are no closer to returning home," it said in a new report.
High-level regional meeting on Rohingya refugees in Bangkok October 17
What’s new?
Turf wars among armed groups and dwindling aid have worsened dire conditions in refugee camps in Bangladesh, home to almost one million Rohingya since 2017.
Dhaka and Naypyitaw are pushing for repatriation to Myanmar, but large-scale returns are "unrealistic" given insecurity and the absence of citizenship and other protections.
Why does it matter?
Pressing for repatriation, Dhaka restricts refugees’ freedom of movement and ability to work in Bangladesh, according to the report.
Constraints on aid organisations also push up the cost of delivering humanitarian assistance, it said.
Refugees are taking drastic measures – from joining criminal gangs to attempting dangerous migration – simply to survive.
What should be done?
Foreign governments can bring immediate relief to Rohingya refugees by upping their support for the humanitarian response.
Meanwhile, given the likelihood of a protracted crisis, Dhaka should adjust its policies to increase aid efficiency and refugee self-reliance with support from donors. It should also overhaul the policing of camps.
Attempts at Repatriation
Meanwhile, international support for the Rohingya humanitarian response is dwindling.
In 2022, the UN’s humanitarian appeal was only 63 percent funded, and pledges have dropped even more sharply in 2023 to date.
As a result, humanitarian organisations have had to scale back vital services; most significantly, the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) has been forced to cut food rations twice, reducing them from $12 to $8 per person per month, or a meagre 27 cents per day.
The cuts are devastating because most refugees are heavily dependent on aid; government restrictions designed to prevent Rohingyas from integrating into Bangladesh mean that finding legal employment is exceedingly difficult.
Rising food prices in the aftermath of Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine have further exacerbated the problem.
There are already indications that the aid cuts are having a range of deleterious effects, from rising malnutrition rates among children to more cases of intimate partner violence.
In early 2023, following two failed attempts at repatriation in 2018 and 2019, Naypyitaw and Dhaka pushed ahead with a pilot project that would see more than 1,000 refugees return in a first phase.
Both sides – along with China, which is playing a mediating role – are keen to make progress, albeit for different reasons: Myanmar’s military regime believes that returns will help its defence at the International Court of Justice against allegations of genocide in 2017.
Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government hopes that they will play in its favour in the general election scheduled for January 2024, said the International Crisis Group.
The repatriation attempt is unlikely to succeed, however, it said.
Refugees are sceptical of Naypyitaw’s assurances of their safety and wary of its refusal to grant them automatic citizenship.
They have good reason to be cautious: conditions in Myanmar have gotten worse since the 2021 coup, and in November fresh fighting broke out in Rakhine State between the military and Arakan Army, one of the country’s most powerful ethnic armed groups, making safe, dignified and voluntary return all but impossible.
Growing poverty and hopelessness in the camps – fuelled by the lack of near-term prospects of return to Myanmar – have compelled many Rohingya to make difficult decisions, ranging from young men joining armed groups or criminal gangs for pay to families resorting to early marriage of adolescent girls in order to reduce the number of mouths to feed.
Thousands of desperate refugees have also undertaken risky journeys in the hope of reaching Malaysia, while an unknown number have quietly returned to Rakhine State despite the dangers or disappeared into other regions in Bangladesh despite rules that normally forbid them to leave the camps.
Bangladesh, in partnership with international actors, needs to break this vicious cycle, said the International Crisis Group.
It should lay the foundations for a sustainable response that acknowledges the protracted nature of the crisis, even while it continues pressing the Myanmar authorities to create suitable conditions for repatriation.
Donors have a crucial role to play in supporting initiatives that build self-reliance and minimise aid dependence, but they can do so only if Dhaka rethinks its policies, permitting activities beyond emergency relief.
In the interim, they should bring humanitarian funding back to a level that lets refugees live in dignity, starting with ensuring that they have enough to eat.
To address rising insecurity, Bangladesh also needs to overhaul the way it polices the camps, allow greater civilian leadership among the refugee population and take stronger action against criminals who are exploiting the refugee crisis for personal gain, said the International Crisis Group.