Bangladesh will walk into Abu Jayed Stadium on Tuesday knowing the math is brutally simple. Beat Afghanistan or pack the bags. Even then, their fate will hang on other results.

Spin coach Mushtaq Ahmed did not sugarcoat what worries him most.

“Their spinners in the middle overs — that’s the biggest threat,” he told reporters on Monday. “Rashid, Nabi, Noor, the young lad Ghazanfar… they’re very good in these conditions. If we don’t handle that phase, we’ll be in trouble.”

Bangladesh’s batting has been fragile in this tournament, especially after the powerplay. Quick wickets have left the middle order exposed. Mushtaq admitted those collapses weigh on the team.

“It’s natural to doubt when you lose four or five early. But we can’t carry that into the next game. Our duty as coaches is to keep the boys believing, not to let them crawl into a shell,” he said.

He also had a word for leg-spinner Rishad Hossain, who has looked raw.

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“Young spinners often try too much. I told him today — land your first three balls in good areas, settle down, then think of variations. Good balls make good overs,” he also said. “Good overs build confidence. That’s the process.”

Afghanistan, for their part, sound fresh and ready. Coach Jonathan Trott said the break after their opening win over Hong Kong came at the right time.

“We’d played six games in 12 days before the tournament. A pause was needed,” Trott said. “Bangladesh have match-winners, but we’re looking forward to it. If we play well tomorrow, the schedule will feel like it’s worked in our favour.”

The recent record gives Bangladesh a glimmer — they’ve won two of the last three against Afghanistan. But Tuesday is not about history. It is about survival.