While the math may not yet guarantee Bangladesh's spot in the Asia Cup Super Four, a closer look at the current group standings and net run-rate suggests that Bangladesh has positioned themselves favorably for the Super Four.
Bangladesh is placed in Group B of the Asia Cup, alongside Sri Lanka and Afghanistan. As of today, Bangladesh has played two matches, accumulating two points with one win and one defeat.
In contrast, both Sri Lanka and Afghanistan have played just one match each. Sri Lanka clinched victory in their encounter with Bangladesh, while Afghanistan faced defeat in their sole match against Bangladesh.
The pivotal match in this group is the upcoming clash between Afghanistan and Sri Lanka. Should Afghanistan emerge victorious in this encounter, every team in Group B would stand with an equal two points each. In this scenario, the teams that secure a berth in the Super Four will be determined by their respective net run rates.
At present, Sri Lanka boasts a run rate of +0.951, Bangladesh follows with +0.373, and Afghanistan lags behind with a run rate of -1.780. This implies that a mere win against Sri Lanka won't secure Afghanistan a place in the Super Four; they will need a significant victory that can outshine Bangladesh's run rate.
The pressing question then becomes: By what margin must Afghanistan defeat Sri Lanka to ensure their place in the Super Four?
The answer to this query hinges on various factors, including the number of runs they score and the number of overs they utilize, of course, along with a win over Sri Lanka.
However, should Sri Lanka emerge victorious in the final group match, both Sri Lanka and Bangladesh will secure their passage to the Super Four, while Afghanistan's journey in Asia Cup 2023 will come to an end.