The first Champions League games to be played in January include one with shocking possible consequences in an unpredictable debut season for the 36-team format.
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Manchester City on Wednesday is a clash of super-wealthy state-backed teams currently a barely believable 25th and 22nd in the standings.
If the 2020 beaten finalist and 2023 champion play to a draw at Parc des Princes, both could start the 18-game final round on Jan. 29 outside the top-24 places that qualify for the knockout stage.
The new format that replaced the traditional groups — now with eight games instead of six, facing eight different opponents, and two in January — is unknown territory even for UEFA, whose preseason prediction that eight points should ensure advancing likely will fall short.
However, few imagined what would play out in the first six rounds.
Man City and PSG have struggled, Real Madrid has lost half its games in 20th place despite adding Kylian Mbappé to a title-winning team, and lowest-ranked debutant Brest has cruised to four wins and seventh in the standings, just ahead of Lille.
“It would have been impossible to list these eight clubs as being in the top eight positions,” Giorgio Marchetti, the UEFA deputy general secretary, told The Associated Press in a recent interview. “There is a lot of new fresh air.”
“I think the format has an impact,” Marchetti said, pointing to comments by Inter Milan coach Simone Inzaghi that it is more difficult to prepare for eight different opponents instead of three. “It is more of a challenge.”
Which positions are teams playing for?
The top eight in the standings on Jan. 29 advance directly to the round of 16 that starts in March. They will likely include current leader Liverpool and second-place Barcelona which are the only two teams already certain to finish in the top 24. Liverpool is the only team to win all six games.
Teams placed from ninth to 24th go into the new knockout playoffs round. Nos. 9-16 will be seeded in the draw on Jan. 31 and will play the second leg at home. Teams placing 17 to 24 host the first legs.
Nos. 25-36 in the standings are eliminated and do not transfer to the Europa League. Already out are Leipzig, Slovan Bratislava and Young Boys which each lost all six games.
Tuesday games
Liverpool hosts Lille and Barcelona is at 15th-place Benfica. Atletico Madrid in 11th place can rise above visiting Bayer Leverkusen, which is in fourth place with just one point more.
Aston Villa, the 1982 European Cup winner, can qualify for the round of 16 with a win at 16th-place Monaco.
Stuttgart, in 26th place, is favored to win at Slovan and move to 10 points, which would put pressure on PSG and Man City.
Wednesday games
Real Madrid hosts struggling Salzburg, and third-place Arsenal can secure its round of 16 entry — and do Man City a favor — by winning at home against 24th-place Dinamo Zagreb.
Sixth-place Inter Milan goes to Sparta Prague, and Bayern Munich, in a surprising 10th place with 12 points, travels to Feyenoord which is 18th with 10 points.
Brest goes to Schalke’s stadium in neutral Germany to face Shakhtar Donetsk, which has four points and likely must win to stay in contention.
Why is the Champions League playing in January?
For the money, mostly. The most influential clubs wanted a bigger and more lucrative Champions League and got two extra midweek matches for all. The congested calendar for soccer left few options.
Historically, European club competitions took a midwinter break until March. Then February was occupied in 2001 by the Champions League when a new format with a second group stage started. February stayed on the calendar when the round of 16 started in 2004, and for the next two decades.
So when UEFA decided in 2022 on this eight-game league phase, January was needed even though some leagues in Nordic countries do not start until March, and others are still on midwinter breaks.
Austrian champion Sturm Graz, which plays at Atalanta on Tuesday, has not played a domestic game since Dec. 7 and will not resume until Feb. 1.