Following Sunday’s matches at the ongoing T20 World Cup, the equations staring at each team in Group 2 – containing three of the 4 Asian teams in the competition, including Bangladesh – have become much clearer. The dynamic of this group's point standings could take on a new twist when Bangladesh take on India on Wednesday (November 2) in a crucial Super 12 game.
All six teams were in action and all three matches produced results, giving a much more definite shape to the group than is the case with Group 1, which has been ravaged by rain.
Pakistan, the last edition’s semifinalists, were the day’s big winners as they steamrolled the Netherlands, yet they remain rooted to fifth in the Group 2 standings as of Monday morning. The two close defeats they suffered to start the tournament left them with all to do in the three remaining games, and even if they were to win all three, it would still take some handouts from the other teams for Pakistan to at least match their 2021 performance.
Sunday’s victory against the Dutch was merely the first of those three results that they must ensure, to have any hope.
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The Netherlands are the first team to get knocked out of the tournament after three consecutive losses in the Super 12s. But, mathematically, 5 teams are still in with a chance to qualify.
The key to qualification that has emerged following three rounds of fixtures in the group is that 7 points gives you a very good shot at qualification. 8 points more or less guarantees it, while 9 is the maximum anyone (only South Africa) can get from here on.
Get to 7 and you can at least qualify in second place. Six points may leave you in with a chance, but it’s likely to be very, very dicey, and most likely in a net run rate situation. Anything less will simply not do.
South Africa's 5-wicket win over India in Perth in Sunday’s late fixture puts them in prime position to qualify, with 5 points from their three games. Despite being robbed of the opportunity for 2 points against Zimbabwe, the Proteas have not allowed that to haunt their campaign. To go with the points, they have also ensured an extremely healthy net run rate till now.
With 7 points pretty much guaranteeing qualification, they now need to win just one of their remaining two fixtures to book their place in the semis. One of those fixtures is against the hapless Dutch.
If they get to 7 points, they will qualify in at least second place, since the remaining fixtures mean only one of Bangladesh or India can get to 8 points – not both.
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India thus missed the chance to go clear with six points from three games, something no other team has managed in the tournament in either group.
Instead, with 4 points from three games, India will need to win both their remaining games to make sure of qualification. One win may still be enough, but then they will need other results to go their way. Their remaining fixtures are against Bangladesh and Zimbabwe.
Pretty much the same equation applies to Bangladesh, who are currently third in Group 2, tied with India on points but behind by a long way on net run rate. Following Sunday’s thrilling last-over victory against Zimbabwe, the Tigers enter the last two games at least with their destiny in their own hands: beat India and Pakistan, and nothing or no one can stop them from playing the semifinals in Australia.
Win just one, and you’ll be praying during the other fixtures for things to go your way. If they were to win just one, though, is there one that might be preferred over the other? It’s impossible to say really, since both India and Pakistan are in the running with Bangladesh, but it might be more important to stop India first.
In fact, that is the next game up for both teams, on Wednesday in Adelaide. And guess what? The weather forecast at the moment shows a 70 percent chance of showers on gameday. It’s a reminder that all our calculations can come a cropper if the weather gods decide to intervene. And they just don’t seem to look away from this tournament.
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Finally, we come to Zimbabwe, currently 4th in the group with 3 points. Needless to say, they need to win both their remaining matches to give themselves a chance. Unlike South Africa, though, their neighbours can’t be sure of qualification even with 7 points. Were they to get there, India would most likely be out, but Bangladesh and South Africa could still finish ahead of them. But if they are able to pull off the two wins, you get the feeling other things will fall into place too, to take them through.
All things considered, including form and remaining fixtures, we believe the group will end exactly as it is now, with South Africa and India qualifying as the top two.
However, the T20 World Cup 2022 appears to be the most unpredictable one so far. The ongoing event has regularly seen upsets by the associated nations, and games have been postponed due to incelement weather. The outcome of Bangladesh's match against India on November 2 could change the direction of the Group 2 point standings yet again. Therefore, no team should take their remaining Super 12s fixtures lightly.