Despite the Trump administration’s hopes, Apple is unlikely to begin producing iPhones in the United States, even with tariffs on Chinese-made goods now as high as 145%.

Since launching the iPhone 18 years ago, Apple has relied heavily on its manufacturing base in China, where it built an intricate supply chain dating back to the 1990s. Moving production to the U.S. would require billions in investment, take years to establish, and significantly raise costs — potentially tripling the retail price of an iPhone and hurting demand for its flagship product.

Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives dismissed the idea, saying an iPhone currently selling for $1,000 could cost over $3,000 if produced in the U.S. He suggested the earliest Apple could feasibly make such a shift would be around 2028. “The price jump would be staggering,” he noted.

Apple declined to comment on the matter. However, CEO Tim Cook may address the issue during the company’s earnings call on May 1. The tariffs, which have coincided with a 15% drop in Apple’s share price and a $500 billion loss in market value since April 2, are expected to be a major discussion point.

Given the heavy dependence on overseas manufacturing, analysts expect Apple may eventually pass on some of the tariff-related costs to consumers. For now, Apple can afford to hold the line on prices thanks to its booming services business — which earned $96 billion last year and remains unaffected by the tariffs — according to Forrester analyst Dipanjan Chatterjee.

While Apple pledged in February to invest $500 billion and hire 20,000 workers in the U.S. by 2028, none of that commitment includes domestic iPhone production. Instead, the company is focusing on AI infrastructure, including a data center in Houston.

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White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt pointed to Apple’s investment as a sign of potential manufacturing in the U.S., saying, “If Apple didn’t think it was possible, they wouldn’t have invested so much.” U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick echoed that belief, predicting that the tariffs would push assembly jobs to American soil.

However, Apple CEO Tim Cook has long expressed doubts about the U.S. labor force’s readiness for iPhone manufacturing, citing a shortage of skilled tooling engineers. “In China, you could fill multiple football fields. In the U.S., I’m not sure we could fill a room,” Cook said during a 2017 event in China.

Despite Trump's earlier attempts during his presidency to bring iPhone production to the U.S., his administration eventually exempted iPhones from the tariffs. During that period, Apple began diversifying its manufacturing by shifting some iPhone production to India and moving parts of other operations to Vietnam.

In 2019, Trump toured a Texas plant assembling Mac computers — a facility actually opened under the Obama administration. He later took credit for the site, tweeting, “Today I opened a major Apple Manufacturing plant in Texas that will bring high paying jobs back to America.”