As the 2024 US presidential election approaches on 5 November, the race has become increasingly competitive between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican rival Donald Trump.
Following President Joe Biden’s unexpected withdrawal from the race in July and his endorsement of Vice President Harris, the election has pivoted into a historic contest that could see the US elect its first female president or grant Trump a second term in office.
Harris Leading National Polls
Since entering the race in late July, Kamala Harris has consistently led Trump in the national polling averages. While the gap between the two candidates remains narrow, Harris holds a slight edge.
According to the most recent polling data, Harris’s lead stands at 3.3 percentage points, up from 2.5 points following a high-stakes debate in Pennsylvania on 10 September.
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The debate, watched by over 67 million people, appeared to give Harris a small but significant boost as Trump's numbers declined slightly after the event.
Despite these national figures, the outcome of the election remains uncertain due to the US electoral system, which hinges on the electoral college.
With 538 electoral votes at stake, a candidate must secure 270 to win, and a small number of swing states will ultimately decide the result.
Key Battleground States
While national polls suggest a Harris lead, the true battleground lies in a handful of key swing states, where polls show a razor-thin margin between the candidates.
Among these are Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, all of which were pivotal in Trump's 2016 victory and Biden’s 2020 win. Harris has maintained a narrow lead in these states since August, but the race is far from settled.
Pennsylvania, with the largest number of electoral votes among swing states, is particularly crucial.
Polling averages show Harris with a slight advantage, but with only one or two percentage points separating her from Trump, it remains anyone’s game. Notably, Biden was trailing Trump by five percentage points in these states before his exit, highlighting Harris's stronger performance in critical regions.
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Polls as a Predictor: A Mixed Record
The reliability of polling data has been a subject of debate, particularly after polls in 2016 and 2020 underestimated support for Trump. In response, polling organisations like 538, which compiles data from a range of pollsters, have taken steps to improve accuracy, including refining the demographic representation in their surveys.
However, with the race so close in the swing states, even small errors could make a big difference.
As election day nears, all eyes are on the swing states and the fluctuating polls, with both candidates ramping up their efforts to win over voters. While Harris may hold the edge for now, the race is far from over, and the US could see a dramatic finish come November.