Israel is heading toward its first election since Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his political rivals placing the deadly assault and its aftermath at the centre of their campaigns.
The attack, which remains deeply embedded in the national consciousness, has become a defining issue in campaign posters, speeches and debates. Three years after what was described as Israel’s worst security failure, the events of October 7 could determine Netanyahu’s political future.
“October 7 is kind of a framework for the entire political discussion that is going on,” said Tamar Hermann, an expert on Israeli public opinion at the Israel Democracy Institute in Jerusalem.
Netanyahu’s critics argue that he should be held accountable for the failures that preceded the attack, which became the deadliest day in Israel’s history and triggered a series of conflicts. His supporters, however, contend that the military and security establishment failed him and credit him with leading the country through a major recovery.
A defeat in the October 27 election could bring an end to the political career of the nearly 77-year-old Netanyahu, while a victory would further strengthen his reputation for political resilience.
Attack reshaped Israel and the region
On October 7, 2023, Hamas militants launched thousands of rockets and breached Israel’s border by land and sea, as well as using motorised paragliders. Around 1,200 people were killed and 251 others were taken hostage.
Israel responded with a major military campaign in Gaza that, according to local health authorities, has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians and devastated much of the territory. The conflict also expanded beyond Gaza, with Israel fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon, seizing territory in Syria, striking targets in Yemen and joining the United States in two conflicts with Iran.
Hundreds of Israelis, many of them soldiers, have also been killed, leaving few families untouched by the violence.
Despite Netanyahu’s pledge of “total victory,” Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran’s government remain intact. Israel has also faced growing international criticism, while some governments have accused it of genocide, a charge Israel strongly rejects. Netanyahu is also wanted by the International Criminal Court.
With several senior security officials having resigned since the attack, Netanyahu remains the only senior figure from October 7 still in office, making the election a major test of his leadership.
October 7 dominates campaign
Netanyahu and his opponents have made the attack a central campaign issue, though they draw sharply different conclusions from it.
Opposition parties describe Netanyahu’s outgoing coalition as the “massacre government,” while Netanyahu portrays his leadership during the conflict as a “war of redemption.”
His main challenger, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, lost his son and nephew in fighting in Gaza. Opposition forces have promised to establish a government focused on “repair and reconstruction,” including an official commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures.
They have also pledged to end military draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jewish men and accused Netanyahu of undermining democratic institutions.
Netanyahu has rejected calls for an independent commission of inquiry and has sought to place responsibility for the security failure on senior officials. He recently accused former Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar of withholding information before the attack, a claim Bar has rejected and said he would challenge through a defamation lawsuit.
Netanyahu has also denied reports that the United Arab Emirates and Egypt warned him about a possible attack before October 7.
He maintains that Israel has emerged stronger from the conflict.
Attack victims enter political arena
People directly affected by the October 7 attack are also seeking seats in parliament.
Eisenkot’s Yashar party includes two parents who lost children in the attack, while Netanyahu’s Likud party has two bereaved parents among its candidates. One of them is the mother of a police officer killed on October 7 whose remains were the last to be returned to Israel under a ceasefire agreement.
Other parties have also recruited candidates with direct experience of the attack and subsequent fighting.
Yair Golan, leader of the dovish Democrats party and a retired general, rushed to the southern border on October 7 to fight Hamas militants. The centrist Together party includes former general Noam Tibon, who fought militants while rescuing his son’s family, as well as the mother of a soldier killed during the attack.
Families of victims and other organisers have said politics will be kept out of a mass memorial service in Tel Aviv, although some relatives have openly criticised the country's leadership.
Gaza largely absent from campaign
Despite the enormous human toll of the war in Gaza, the humanitarian crisis there has received relatively little attention in Israel’s election campaign.
Israeli political leaders have largely focused on the trauma caused by October 7 rather than the scale of Palestinian deaths, destruction and humanitarian needs in Gaza. Peace negotiations have received little attention, while even several of Netanyahu’s opponents oppose the creation of a Palestinian state.
A documentary released recently by Israeli filmmakers depicting civilian deaths in Gaza drew accusations of treason from politicians across the political spectrum, including Eisenkot.
Election exposes deep divisions
Opinion polls indicate a closely contested race between Netanyahu and Eisenkot, with the final outcome uncertain.
More than 60% of Israelis surveyed by the Israel Democracy Institute said their views about October 7 would be a major factor in deciding how they vote. Among Jewish Israelis, the figure was 68%, while Arab voters identified rising crime in their communities as a more pressing concern.
However, Hermann cautioned that viewing October 7 as an important election issue does not necessarily translate into support for one particular candidate.
The attack, she said, has instead deepened divisions within Israeli society, with voters drawing very different conclusions about Netanyahu’s responsibility and leadership.