Vote counting was underway in Thailand's early general election on Sunday, seen as a three-way race among competing visions of progressive, populist and old-fashioned patronage politics.
The battle for support from 53 million registered voters came against a backdrop of slow economic growth and heightened nationalist sentiment. While more than 50 parties contested the polls, only three — the People’s Party, Bhumjaithai, and Pheu Thai — have the nationwide organization and popularity to gain a winning mandate.
A simple majority of the 500 elected lawmakers selects the next prime minister.
No outright winner expected
Local polls consistently project that no single party will gain a majority, necessitating the formation of a coalition government.
Although the progressive People’s Party is seen as favored to win a plurality, its reformist politics aren't shared by its leading rivals, which may freeze it out by joining forces to form a government.
The People’s Party, led by Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, is the successor to the Move Forward Party, which won the most seats in the House of Representatives in 2023, but was blocked from forming a government by conservative lawmakers and then forced to dissolve.
"I think we will get the mandate from the people, and we promised the people that we will form the people’s government to bring policies that benefit all, not a few in the country,” Natthaphong told reporters after casting his ballot in Bangkok.
Reformist party softens its pitch
His party's platform continues to promise sweeping reforms of the military, police and judiciary, appealing to youth and urban voters. Legal constraints have led it to set aside demands for reform of a law that metes out harsh penalties for criticism of the monarchy, while putting new emphasis on economic issues.
Softening its politics risks weakening its core support, already at risk because the last election had positioned it squarely as the alternative to nine previous years of military-led government, a situation it can't fruitfully exploit this time.
At the same time, its positions critical of the military can be a political liability with the surge of patriotism that emerged during last year’s border clashes with Cambodia, said Napon Jatusripitak, director of the Center for Politics and Geopolitics at Thailand Future, a Bangkok-based think tank.
The Bhumjaithai Party, headed by incumbent Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, is seen as the main defender and preferred choice of the royalist-military establishment.
Anutin has been prime minister only since last September, after serving in the Cabinet of his immediate predecessor, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who was forced out of office for an ethics violation regarding mishandling relations with Cambodia. He dissolved parliament in December to call a new election after he was threatened with a no-confidence vote.
Subsequent border clashes with Cambodia allowed Anutin to recast himself as a wartime leader after his popularity initially slipped because of floods and financial scandals. His campaign focuses on national security and economic stimulus.
“We have done everything that we had to, but we cannot force the mind of the people. We can only present ourselves, and hope that the people will have faith in us,” Anutin said after casting ballots in northeastern Buriram province, his party's stronghold.
Bhumjaithai, seen as the likeliest party to form the next government, benefits from an electoral strategy employing old-style patronage politics and a machine skilled at grassroots organizing in the vote-rich northeast.
Thaksin's political machine
The Pheu Thai Party is the latest political vehicle for billionaire former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Thaksin-backed parties staged repeated electoral comebacks, only to be ousted by conservative-leaning courts and state watchdog agencies.
It softened its politics enough by the 2023 election to be returned to power after being judged by the previously hostile royalist-military establishment as an acceptable alternative to the more progressive Move Forward party.
The conservative court system rounded on it anyway — ousting two of its prime ministers over two years and ordering Thaksin imprisoned on old charges. The party now campaigns on economic revival and populist pledges like cash handouts, nominating Thaksin’s nephew, Yodchanan Wongsawat, as its lead candidate for prime minister.
"I’m excited, because I think today will be another busy day for the country’s democracy,” Yodchanan told reporters after voting.
Sunday’s voting includes a referendum asking voters whether Thailand should replace its 2017 military-drafted constitution.
The vote isn't on a proposed draft, but rather to decide whether to authorize parliament to begin a formal drafting process, which would require many further steps before coming to fruition.
Pro-democracy groups view a new charter as a critical step toward reducing the influence of unelected institutions such as the military and judiciary, while conservatives warn that it could cause instability.