COP29, the 29th UN Climate Change Conference, has entered its final week in Baku, Azerbaijan, as global ministers converge for high-stakes negotiations.
Against the backdrop of a year marked by record-breaking heat and climate-induced disasters, COP29 is widely anticipated as a potential turning point, with the global community pressing for substantial commitments to finance climate resilience, gender equity, and just transition policies.
A "Climate Finance COP" Amid Global Crises
As extreme weather impacts countries worldwide, this conference has focused heavily on the urgent need for robust climate finance from wealthy nations to assist developing countries in adapting to and mitigating climate impacts. Dubbed the "climate finance COP," COP29’s outcomes are expected to center on mobilizing funds for vulnerable nations, many of whom are bearing the brunt of climate-induced droughts, floods, and heatwaves.
Navigating the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG)
A centerpiece of COP29, the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), is aimed at providing a structured and ambitious funding framework to meet global climate adaptation and mitigation needs. Negotiators are poring over a dense, 25-page draft document described by insiders as a “maze,” where various funding options and mechanisms remain under debate. Principles of “Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities” (CBDR-RC) and equity are essential to progressing on this issue.
Delegates from developing countries argue that NCQG should be a responsibility borne by developed nations and are advocating for direct public finance, grants, and tax reform rather than private investments. Proposals to broaden the contributor base and introduce a global investment mechanism have sparked concern among some nations, who worry these changes could dilute accountability and divert responsibility.
Progress on the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP)
A significant focal point of this year’s negotiations is the UAE Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP), which seeks to support workers and communities affected by the shift from fossil fuels to greener energy sources. JTWP discussions have highlighted the importance of human rights, labor rights, and Indigenous rights, along with calls for social dialogue to ensure the transition process is fair for informal and caregiving economies.
Sohanur Rahman, Executive Coordinator of YouthNet Global, spoke passionately about the need for urgent action: “Frontline communities, especially youth and marginalized groups, need more than just promises. COP29 must translate goals into immediate actions. The Just Transition Work Programme represents a lifeline for countless lives and livelihoods.”
Will COP29 deliver on climate finance promises for vulnerable nations?
Setbacks in the Mitigation Work Programme (MWP)
Progress on the Mitigation Work Programme (MWP), designed to drive climate action pre-2030, has stalled, with discussions likely postponed until the Bonn Climate Change Conference. The delay could jeopardize efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C, the Paris Agreement’s target. Activists and experts have stressed that MWP should remain a top priority to prevent escalating climate impacts in the coming years.
Gender and Climate Justice: Addressing Intersectionality
Gender equity is another high-priority agenda item at COP29, though progress has been challenging. Delegates from vulnerable nations are calling for increased funding to ensure gender-responsive climate policies, with a particular focus on women and gender-diverse populations, who often face the most significant climate impacts. Proposed reductions in human rights language within the Lima Work Program on Gender have led to backlash from activists, who argue that inclusive climate policies must address the intersection of gender, race, class, and ability.
Groups such as the MenEngage Alliance have also advocated for the involvement of men and boys in gender-transformative climate solutions. Sohanur Rahman reinforced this need, stating, “Men and boys must be engaged in the climate solution. A gender-transformative approach strengthens communities and leads to sustainable outcomes for all. True climate justice leaves no one behind.”
High-Level Political Absences Add Complexity
The absence of key global leaders, including Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Emmanuel Macron, and newly re-elected U.S. President Donald Trump, has raised concerns about the strength of global commitments. The U.S. political landscape casts a particular shadow over COP29, with Trump’s administration expected to review America’s involvement in the Paris Agreement. Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro also missed the conference due to health and emergency crises at home, while Argentina’s entire delegation departed following orders from President Javier Milei, adding to the tense diplomatic atmosphere.
In a pointed exchange, Brazil’s Environment Minister Marina Silva challenged Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, who called fossil fuels a “gift from God” during the conference's opening. Silva warned of the dangers of fossil dependency, comparing it to an unhealthy diet that leads to chronic illness.
Bangladeshi CSOs demand fossil fuel phase out, revision of power master plan at COP 29
Rising Emissions and Record Temperatures Add Pressure
As COP29 progresses, alarming climate statistics have amplified the urgency of the discussions. The World Meteorological Organization recently warned that 2024 may set a new record for the hottest year, with global temperatures between January and September already exceeding pre-industrial averages by 1.54ºC. Meanwhile, the Global Carbon Budget 2024 report predicts emissions will reach an unprecedented 41.6 billion tons this year, with no signs of a peak in CO2 levels.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has proposed innovative funding mechanisms, such as taxes on shipping, aviation, and fossil fuel extraction, to generate the necessary capital for climate action in developing countries. However, technical negotiations in the initial week were primarily focused on emissions monitoring and the establishment of a resilient global carbon market.
Looking Forward: Urgent Action Needed
As COP29 heads into its final week, countries including Brazil, the UAE, and the UK have committed to revising their emissions reduction targets in line with the 1.5ºC goal by February 2025. However, without substantial emissions pledges and stronger high-level political support, skepticism remains high regarding the conference's final outcomes.
Sohanur Rahman, speaking for frontline communities, summed up the urgency facing COP29: “We can no longer afford to wait. COP29 must lay the groundwork for climate justice, inclusivity, and meaningful action that brings hope to communities worldwide.”
As negotiations enter their decisive phase, the global community is watching, hopeful that COP29 will deliver the necessary steps toward an equitable and sustainable future.