Bangladesh is projected to face the highest average inflation rate among South Asian nations in the current fiscal year, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

In its latest Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July update, the Manila-based multilateral lender predicted that Bangladesh's average inflation could hit 8.8 percent, outpacing regional peers including India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

ADB projects Bangladesh’s GDP growth at 4.5 percent in FY2027 amid high inflation

According to the ADB, the stubborn inflationary pressure in Bangladesh is heavily linked to the domestic tariff revisions of energy resources. The report pointed out that recent price adjustments of petroleum, gas, and electricity continue to exert a ripple effect across transport networks, utility services, and volatile consumer goods prices. Consequently, these structural adjustments are significantly slowing down the pace of cooling inflation in the country.

While neighboring South Asian countries like India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka successfully managed to rein in the historic inflation spikes triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war, Bangladesh has struggled to replicate that downward trajectory.

The ADB's grim forecast aligns with the latest domestic data. According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), consumer inflation has remained stubbornly locked above the 9 percent threshold for three consecutive months.

June 2026:Consumer inflation ticked down slightly to 9.16 percent.

May 2026: Inflation stood at 9.42 percent, registering the highest peak in 16 months since February 2025.

Economists note that the persistent high inflation continues to squeeze the purchasing power of low- and fixed-income groups, underscoring the urgent need for robust monetary interventions and market monitoring to stabilize commodity prices.