An anonymous cryptocurrency trader made more than $436,000 by betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro shortly before U.S. authorities officially announced the operation, raising concerns over possible use of inside information.
Data from Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, showed a sharp rise in bets that Maduro would be removed from power just hours before U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader was in U.S. custody. One account, created last month, placed four Venezuela-related bets worth about $32,500 and earned nearly half a million dollars.
The odds of Maduro’s exit stood at just 6.5% on Friday afternoon but climbed rapidly overnight before Trump’s announcement on Truth Social. Polymarket has not commented on the unusual trading activity.
Financial reform advocates said the trade showed signs of insider knowledge. Following the incident, a U.S. lawmaker introduced a bill to bar government employees from trading on prediction markets using nonpublic information.
Prediction markets have grown rapidly in the United States but face limited regulation compared to traditional stock markets.
With inputs from BBC