Swedish voters are heading to the polls Sunday in a parliamentary election that will decide whether Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson secures a second term and whether the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats enter government for the first time, or the center-left returns to power.
Kristersson is seeking another four-year term leading the European Union's newest NATO member, while former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson is seeking to bring the center-left Social Democrats back to power.
The campaign has largely focused on which parties can form the next government rather than policy issues such as healthcare, with experts describing it as fragmented and lacking coherence.
“Crime has come down, inflation has come down. So these topics are not really what people discuss,” said Zeth Isaksson, a sociologist specializing in electoral behavior at Stockholm University and a political scientist at the European University Institute in Florence, Italy.
“People discuss who is going to be in government, and that’s what the election is about,” he said.
Kristersson has governed since 2022 through a three-party center-right coalition that depends on support from the Sweden Democrats to maintain a parliamentary majority.
The Sweden Democrats, an anti-immigration party with far-right roots that has moved closer to the political mainstream, are expected to receive Cabinet positions if the right retains power.
Andersson, leader of the Social Democrats, previously served as prime minister from 2021 until her party lost power in the 2022 election. The Social Democrats have historically dominated Swedish governments, leading most administrations since World War II.
Swedish politics is broadly divided into two four-party blocs, one on the right and another on the left. The key question is therefore which bloc can secure enough support to form a government. Parties must win at least 4% of the vote to gain seats in parliament.
The Sweden Democrats won 20.5% of the vote in 2022, making them the largest party on the right.
Kristersson announced in April that his Moderate Party would allow the Sweden Democrats to join the government if the right wins a majority. He also said he would remain prime minister even if the Sweden Democrats emerge as the strongest party in the bloc.
The Sweden Democrats were founded in the 1980s by members of right-wing extremist groups, including neo-Nazis. Under leader Jimmie Åkesson, who has headed the party since 2005, it has moderated its rhetoric, expelled openly racist members and grown from a marginal political force.
The party's potential role in government has gained added attention amid the rise of populist and far-right movements across Europe, including the far-right Alternative for Germany's first-place finish in a regional election on Sept. 6.
More than 8 million people in Sweden, which has a population of about 10.6 million, are eligible to vote for the 349-member Riksdag, the country's parliament that will determine the next prime minister.
The Swedish Election Authority said the first preliminary results are expected around 9 p.m. local time Sunday, or 1900 GMT.