Beijing will roll out the red carpet for more than two dozen world leaders at two major, defense-related events in the coming week. The guest lists, including notable omissions, are a window into China’s ambitions, alliances and continued attempts to expand its influence.
The two events are the annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a group established by China and Russia in 2001 with a focus on security in Central Asia and the wider region, and a massive military parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, where China emerged victorious over its neighbor Japan.
High-profile guests of Chinese President Xi Jinping will include the Russian and North Korean leaders, as well as heads of state and government from most Southeast Asian and Central Asian nations.
But the guest lists for the SCO forum and the military parade don’t fully overlap, reflecting Beijing’s interests, loyalties and limitations among its neighbors and beyond.
Russia, India and Central Asia will be present at the SCO summit
World leaders will start pouring in for the SCO summit, to be held Sunday and Monday in the port city of Tianjin, just southeast of Beijing. Then on Wednesday, there will be a massive military parade in Beijing marking the 80th anniversary of Japan’s surrender at the end of World War II.
The parade is set to showcase some of China’s most advanced homegrown weapons, including more than 100 aircraft, and numerous tanks and missiles.
The guest list for the SCO summit includes leaders of the organization's 10 member states, along with representatives from almost two dozen other countries, some of which may join the group at a later date.
SCO was established by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and later expanded to include members such as India, Iran, Pakistan and Belarus. Afghanistan and Mongolia are observer states, and 14 other countries, mostly from Southeast Asia and the Middle East, serve as “dialogue partners.” The country hosting the annual summit rotates every year.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi top the list of dignitaries attending the summit. Also attending are Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Egyptian Prime Minister Mustafa Madbouly, whose countries are “dialogue partners” within SCO.
Some countries that are not SCO members will also be represented, mostly from Southeast Asia. These include Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia and Vietnam, reflecting China’s desire to shore up its ties within the region.
Not everyone will stay for the military parade
Most of the high-level guests at the SCO forum and the military parade will overlap, but there will be some notable departures — and additions.
The leaders of India, Egypt and Turkey will leave Beijing before the military show. Egypt will be represented by a lower-level official. Like most Western countries and their allies, India and Turkey generally refrain from posing alongside China’s top leaders at military parades, which take place every few years.
Instead, joining Xi and Putin to observe Chinese troops marching in lockstep on Chang'an Avenue will be North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who will not have attended the earlier SCO summit. This will be Kim’s first meeting with Xi in more than six years, and his first occasion to come together with a group of world leaders since the reclusive North Korean leader took office, in late 2011.
Xi, Putin and Kim potentially seated together in Tiananmen Square will make for a defiant show of unity at a time when the West is increasingly frustrated over Russia’s war in Ukraine. Beijing, though on paper neutral in the conflict, has not condemned Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and is accused of selling weapon components to Russia. Meanwhile, North Korea has sent troops to aid the Russians in the war.
Additionally, Myanmar’s junta chief Min Aung Hlaing, who is the country’s acting president in the wake of a military coup in 2021, will also attend the military parade.
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel, as well as the leaders of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zimbabwe, will also be there.
The only European heads of state attending the parade but not the SCO summit will be the Russia-friendly Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico.