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Global trade will grow a lackluster 1% in 2023, WTO predicts
The World Trade Organization is predicting global trade volumes will grow a lackluster 1% next year as crises and challenges weigh on markets, including high energy prices, rising interest rates and uncertainties about Chinese manufacturing output amid the lingering COVID-19 pandemic.
The Geneva-based trade body said Wednesday that the amount of goods shipped between countries are expected to rise 3.5% this year, up from the 3% that WTO anticipated in its first forecast for the year in April.
In 2023, the prediction is for such trade volumes to grow just 1%, down from the 3.4% expected previously.
“The risks are certainly to the downside” next year, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told reporters at the group’s headquarters in Geneva.
This year, the higher predicted increase in trade volumes stems from better data that arrived in the middle of the year, contributing to a clearer forecast, and a boom in trade volumes from oil- and gas-producing countries in the Middle East as supplies from Russia were shunned and consuming countries sought alternative sources, WTO economists say.
The WTO laid out several factors weighing on trade, including higher energy prices resulting from Russia’s war in Ukraine, which prompted a number of countries — including European Union members that are big consumers of Russian oil and natural gas — to slap economic sanctions on Moscow.
“Today, the global economy faces a multipronged crisis,” Okonjo-Iweala said. “Monetary tightening is weighing on growth across much of the world, including in the United States. In Europe, high energy prices are squeezing households and businesses. And in China, COVID-19 outbreaks continue to disrupt production and ordinary economic life.”
“Low-income developing countries in particular face serious risks from food insecurity and debt distress,” she added.
While global trade has rebounded from a deep slump in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. Federal Reserve and other central bank moves to choke off inflation through higher interest rates are likely to have knock-on effects for crucial spending in areas like housing, vehicle sales and bond prices, the WTO says.
The trade body said, however, that new information from purchasing managers on final goods prices and an index of input prices suggested that inflationary pressures “may have peaked” — a factor that could influence decision-making from central bankers in the months ahead.
3 years ago
World failing to protect mental health of health care workers, says report on impact of Covid
A new report by the Qatar Foundation, World Innovation Summit for Health (WISH), in collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO) finds that at least a quarter of health and care workers surveyed reported anxiety, depression and burnout symptoms.
Our duty of care: A global call to action to protect the mental health of health and care workers examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the mental health of the health and care workforce and offers 10 policy actions as a framework for immediate follow-up by employers, organizations and policy-makers.
The report found that 23 to 46 percent of health and care workers reported symptoms of anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic and 20 to 37 percent experienced depressive symptoms.
Burnout among health and care workers during the pandemic ranged from 41 to 52 percent in pooled estimates.
Women, young people and parents of dependent children were found to be at greater risk of psychological distress -- significant considering that women make up 67 percent of the global health workforce and are subject to inequalities in the sector, such as unequal pay.
The higher risk of negative mental health outcomes among younger health workers is also a concern.
Read: Non-communicable diseases kill a person under 70 every two seconds: WHO
“Well into the third year of the COVID-19 pandemic, this report confirms that the levels of anxiety, stress and depression among health and care workers has become a ‘pandemic within a pandemic,’” said Jim Campbell, WHO Director of Health Workforce.
This report follows landmark decisions at the World Health Assembly and International Labour Conference in 2022 that reaffirmed the obligations of governments and employers to protect the workforce, ensure their rights and provide them with decent work in a safe and enabling practice environment that upholds their mental health and wellbeing. Protecting and safeguarding this workforce is also an investment in the continuity of essential public health services to make progress towards universal health coverage and global health security.
"The increased pressure experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic has clearly had a detrimental impact on the health and wellbeing of health and care workers," said Sultana Afdhal, Chief Executive Officer of WISH.
“The pressure isn’t new, but COVID-19 has brought into sharp focus the need for better care for those who care for us. This new report sets out policy actions that promote strengthening health systems and calls for global collaboration across governments and healthcare employers to invest in safeguarding the most valuable asset that our health systems possess, which is the people working within them.”
The report highlights 10 policy actions as a framework for immediate uptake, such as investing in workplace environments and culture that prevent burnout, promote staff wellbeing, and support quality care. This includes the obligations and roles of governments and employers for occupational safety and health.
Read: Covid deaths lowest since pandemic began: WHO
WHO recently published recommendations for the effective interventions and approaches to support mental health at work, including those specifically for the health and care workforce, which call for organizational level changes that address working conditions and ensure confidential mental health care and support as a priority. Relevant to this framework, the WHO Global health and care worker compact provides technical guidance on how to protect health and care workers and safeguard their rights; it highlights that duty of care is a shared responsibility in every country.
3 years ago
Nobel in chemistry goes to 3 for “snapping molecules together”
This year’s Nobel Prize in chemistry has been awarded in equal parts to Carolyn R. Bertozzi, Morten Meldal and K. Barry Sharpless for developing way of “snapping molecules together” that can be used to design medicines.
Their work, known as click chemistry and bioorthogonal reactions, is used to make cancer drugs, map DNA and create materials that are tailored to a specific purpose.
Hans Ellegren, secretary general of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, announced the winners Wednesday at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm, Sweden.
Bertozzi is based at Stanford University in California, Meldal is at the University of Copenhagen, Denmark, and Sharpless is affiliated with Scripps Research, California.
Sharpless previously won a Nobel Prize in 2001. He is the fifth person to receive the award twice.
Last year the prize was awarded to scientists Benjamin List and David W.C. MacMillan for finding an ingenious and environmentally cleaner way to build molecules that the Nobel panel said is “already benefiting humankind greatly.”
A week of Nobel Prize announcements kicked off Monday with Swedish scientist Svante Paabo receiving the award in medicine for unlocking secrets of Neanderthal DNA that provided key insights into our immune system.
Three scientists jointly won the prize in physics Tuesday. Frenchman Alain Aspect, American John F. Clauser and Austrian Anton Zeilinger had shown that tiny particles can retain a connection with each other even when separated, a phenomenon known as quantum entanglement, that can be used for specialized computing and to encrypt information.
The awards continue with literature on Thursday. The 2022 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday and the economics award on Monday.
The prizes carry a cash award of 10 million Swedish kronor (nearly $900,000) and will be handed out on Dec. 10. The money comes from a bequest left by the prize’s creator, Swedish inventor Alfred Nobel, in 1895.
3 years ago
Kolkata artists paint, mold idols for Durga Puja
Spirits are soaring in India’s “City of Joy” as tens of thousands of people jostle on Kolkata’s streets in celebration of “Durga Puja,” the most important festival of the Bengali community.
The five-day festival that began Saturday is marked by prayers to the Hindu goddess Durga, feasts, rejoicing, music, dance and drama marking the victory of good over evil. People visit richly illuminated and decorated community centers with idols of Durga and other goddesses worshipped by the Bengali community.
This year’s Durga Puja in West Bengal state in eastern India comes after two years of pandemic curbs on large gatherings and follows UNESCO’s recognition of Kolkata’s festival as part of the “Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity.”
3 years ago
Nobel Prize in Physics awarded to three scientists
This year’s Nobel Prize in physics has been awarded to Alain Aspect, John F. Clauser and Anton Zeilinger for their work on quantum information science.
Hans Ellegren, Secretary General, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, announced the winner Tuesday at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm.
A week of Nobel Prize announcements kicked off Monday with Swedish scientist Svante Paabo receiving the award in medicine Monday for unlocking secrets of Neanderthal DNA that provided key insights into our immune system.
They continue with chemistry on Wednesday and literature on Thursday. The 2022 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday and the economics award on Oct. 10.
3 years ago
Unlocking secrets of Neanderthal DNA, Swede scientist wins Nobel
Swedish scientist Svante Paabo won the Nobel Prize in medicine Monday for discoveries in human evolution that unlocked secrets of Neanderthal DNA that helped us understand what makes humans unique and provided key insights into our immune system, including our vulnerability to severe COVID-19.
Techniques that Paabo spearheaded allowed researchers to compare the genome of modern humans and that of other hominins — the Denisovans as well as Neanderthals.
“Just as you do an archeological excavation to find out about the past, we sort of make excavations in the human genome,” he said at a news conference held by Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Leipzig.
While Neanderthal bones were first discovered in the mid-19th century, only by understanding their DNA — often referred to as the code of life — have scientists been able to fully understand the links between species.
This included the time when modern humans and Neanderthals diverged as a species, around 800,000 years ago.
“Paabo and his team also surprisingly found that gene flow had occurred from Neanderthals to Homo sapiens, demonstrating that they had children together during periods of co-existence," said Anna Wedell, chair of the Nobel Committee.
This transfer of genes between hominin species affects how the immune system of modern humans reacts to infections, such as the coronavirus. People outside Africa have 1-2% of Neanderthal genes. Neanderthals were never in Africa, so there's no known direct contribution to people in sub-Saharan Africa.
Paabo and his team managed to extract DNA from a tiny finger bone found in a cave in Siberia, leading to the recognition of a new species of ancient humans they called Denisovans.
Wedell called it “a sensational discovery” that showed Neanderthals and Denisovans were sister groups that split from each other around 600,000 years ago. Denisovan genes have been found in up to 6% of modern humans in Asia and Southeast Asia, indicating interbreeding occurred there too.
“By mixing with them after migrating out of Africa, Homo sapiens picked up sequences that improved their chances to survive in their new environments,” Wedell said. For example, Tibetans share a gene with Denisovans that helps them adapt to high altitude.
Paabo said he was surprised to learn of his win, and at first thought it was an elaborate prank by colleagues or a call about his summer home in Sweden.
“So I was just gulping down the last cup of tea to go and pick up my daughter at her nanny where she has had an overnight stay, and then I got this call from Sweden," he said in an interview on the Nobel Prizes homepage. “I thought, ‘Oh the lawn mower’s broken down or something'" at the summer home.
He also mused about what would have happened if Neanderthals had survived another 40,000 years.
“Would we see even worse racism against Neanderthals, because they were really in some sense different from us? Or would we actually see our place in the living world quite in a different way when we would have other forms of humans there that are very like us but still different,” he said.
Paabo, 67, performed his prizewinning studies at the University of Munich and at the Max Planck Institute. During the celebrations after the news conference in Leipzig, colleagues threw him into a pool of water. Paabo took it with humor, splashing his feet and laughing.
Paabo’s father, Sune Bergstrom, won the Nobel prize in medicine in 1982, the eighth time the son or daughter of a laureate also won a Nobel Prize. In his book “Neanderthal Man: In Search of Lost Genomes,” Paabo described himself as Bergstrom’s “secret extramarital son” — something he also mentioned briefly on Monday.
He father took a “big interest” in his work, he said, but it was his mother who most encouraged him.
“The biggest influence in my life was for sure my mother, with whom I grew up," he said in the Nobel interview. "And in some sense it makes me a bit sad that she can’t experience this day. She sort of was very much into science, and very much stimulated and encouraged me through the years.”
Scientists in the field lauded the Nobel Committee's choice.
David Reich, a geneticist at Harvard Medical School, said he was thrilled, fearing the field of ancient DNA might “fall between the cracks.”
By recognizing that DNA can be preserved for tens of thousands of years — and developing ways to extract it — Paabo and his team created a completely new way to answer questions about our past, said Reich, who is paid by the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, which also supports The Associated Press’ Health and Science Department.
Dr. Eric Green, director of the National Human Genome Research Institute at the U.S. National Institutes of Health, called it “a great day for genomics,” a relatively young field first named in 1987.
The Human Genome project, which ran from 1990-2003, “got us the first sequence of the human genome, and we’ve improved that sequence ever since,” Green said.
When you sequence DNA from an ancient fossil, you only have “vanishingly small amounts,” Green said. Among Paabo’s innovations was figuring out methods for extracting and preserving these tiny amounts. He was then able to lay pieces of the Neanderthal genome sequence against the sequencing of the Human Genome Project.
Paabo’s team published the first draft of a Neanderthal genome in 2009, and sequenced more than 60% of the full genome from a small sample of bone, after contending with decay and contamination from bacteria.
“We should always be proud of the fact that we sequenced our genome. But the idea that we can go back in time and sequence the genome that doesn’t live anymore and something that’s a direct relative of humans is truly remarkable,” Green said.
Paabo said they discovered during the pandemic that “the greatest risk factor to become severely ill and even die when you’re infected with the virus has come over to modern people from Neanderthals. So we and others are now intensely studying the Neanderthal version versus the protective modern version to try to understand what the functional difference would be.”
Nobel Prize announcements continue Tuesday with the physics prize, chemistry on Wednesday and literature on Thursday. The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced Friday and the economics award on Oct. 10.
Last year's medicine recipients were David Julius and Ardem Patapoutian for their discoveries into how the human body perceives temperature and touch.
The prizes carry a cash award of 10 million Swedish kronor (nearly $900,000) and will be handed out on Dec. 10. The money comes from a bequest left by the prize’s creator, Swedish inventor Alfred Nobel, who died in 1895.
3 years ago
Swedish scientist Svante Pääbo wins Nobel in medicine for research on evolution
2022 Nobel Prize in physiology or medicine has been awarded to Swedish scientist Svante Pääbo for his discoveries on human evolution.
Thomas Perlmann, secretary of the Nobel Committee, announced the winner Monday at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm, Sweden.
The medicine prize kicked off a week of Nobel Prize announcements. It continues Tuesday with the physics prize, with chemistry on Wednesday and literature on Thursday. The 2022 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday and the economics award on Oct. 10.
Read Russian journalist sells Nobel Prize for Ukrainian children
The winner, or winners, of the Nobel Prize in physiology or medicine will be announced Monday at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm, Sweden.
Among the researchers who may be honored this year are those who were instrumental in the development of the mRNA technology that went into COVID-19 vaccines, which saved millions of lives across the world.
Last year's recipients were David Julius and Ardem Patapoutian for their discoveries into how the human body perceives temperature and touch.
Read 5 things to know about the Nobel prizes
The medicine prize kicks off a week of Nobel Prize announcements. It continues Tuesday with the physics prize, with chemistry on Wednesday and literature on Thursday. The 2022 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday and the economics award on Oct. 10.
The 2022 Nobel prizes carry a cash award of 10 million Swedish kronor (nearly $900,000) and will be handed out on Dec. 10. The money comes from a bequest left by the prize’s creator, Swedish inventor Alfred Nobel, who died in 1895.
3 years ago
"Let us pledge to live up to our shared responsibility to one another"
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has sought more urgent action and greater investment to provide affordable housing to all – alongside access to electricity, water, sanitation, transport, and other basic services.
"A cascade of challenges – from climate chaos and conflicts to COVID-19 – is hitting the most vulnerable populations the hardest," he said, adding that rapid and unplanned urbanization is exacerbating many of these challenges.
In a message marking the World Habitat Day on Monday, the UN chief said over one billion people live in overcrowded settlements with inadequate housing – and that number is rising every day.
Read: “Prejudice, racism and rising hate speech”: UN chief describes world
Each year, World Habitat Day focuses attention on the state of human settlements.
This year’s theme – ‘Mind the Gap. Leave No One and No Place Behind’ – puts the spotlight on widening inequalities in living conditions across the world.
"To leave no one behind is the core pledge of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development," Guterres said.
This means making cities work for women and children and closing existing gaps: between the haves and the have-nots; within and between urban and rural areas; and within and between developed and developing regions, he added.
"On World Habitat Day, let us pledge to live up to our shared responsibility to one another," Guterres said.
Inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable cities and human settlements are crucial – and local action is key, he mentioned.
Read: Peace is the only practical way to a better, fairer world for all: UN Chief
Cities, towns, and communities can spearhead innovative solutions to address inequalities, ensure adequate shelter for all, tackle the climate crisis and drive a green and inclusive pandemic recovery, he said.
This includes, Guterres said, pursuing people-centered policies, promoting sustainable patterns of consumption and production, and prioritizing green and resilient infrastructure.
3 years ago
If Putin deploys nuclear weapons in Ukraine, US will destroy Russia’s forces: Ex-CIA director
Former CIA director and retired four-star army general David Petraeus warned on Sunday that if Russian President Vladimir Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine, US and its allies would destroy Russia’s troops and equipment as well as sink its Black Sea fleet.
Petreaus said that he had not discussed the anticipated US response to a nuclear escalation from Russia with national security adviser Jake Sullivan, even though administration officials claim that this response has been frequently expressed to Moscow, The Guardian reports.
“Just to give you a hypothetical, we would respond by leading a Nato – a collective – effort that would take out every Russian conventional force that we can see and identify on the battlefield in Ukraine and also in Crimea and every ship in the Black Sea,” Petreaus told ABC News.
Read: Ukraine says Russia smuggling its grain; Moscow says allegation “baseless”
The development comes days after Putin made comments that many regarded as a threat to escalate tensions between Russia and the west into a full-scale war.
When asked if the use of nuclear weapons by Russia in the Ukraine would include the United States and NATO in the conflict, Petreaus responded that such an event would not fall under the provisions of Article 5 of the alliance, which calls for a collective defence. Despite the fact that Ukraine is not a member of NATO, Petreaus claimed that a “US and NATO response” would be appropriate, the Guardian report says.
Petreaus claimed that Putin was “desperate” as a result of rising pressure after Ukrainian successes in the country’s east under the annexation declaration issued last week and mounting internal opposition to mobilisation efforts.
Read: Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Asia’s climate goals
The ex-CIA director emphasised that things might still grow worse for Putin and Russia. And nothing will alter this, not even the tactical use of nuclear bombs in Ukraine, he said. “You have to take the threat seriously,” he, however, noted.
3 years ago
Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Asia’s climate goals
The queues outside petrol pumps in Sri Lanka have lessened, but not the anxiety.
Asanka Sampath, a 43-year-old factory clerk, is forever vigilant. He checks his phone for messages, walks past the pump, and browses social media to see if fuel has arrived. Delays could mean being left stranded for days.
“I am really fed up with this,” he said.
His frustrations echo that of the 22-million inhabitants of the island nation, facing its worst ever economic crisis because of heavy debts, lost tourism revenue during the pandemic, and surging costs. The consequent political turmoil culminated with the formation of a new government, but recovery has been complicated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the consequent upending of global energy markets.
Europe’s need for gas means that they’re competing with Asian countries, driving up prices of fossil fuels and resulting in what Tim Buckley, the director of the thinktank Climate Energy Finance, refers to as “hyper-inflation ... and I use that word as an understatement.”
Most Asian countries are prioritizing energy security, sometimes over their climate goals. For rich countries like South Korea or Japan, this means forays into nuclear energy. For the enormous energy needs of China and India it implies relying on dirty coal power in the short term. But for developing countries with already-strained finances, the war is having a disproportionate impact, said Kanika Chawla, of the United Nations’ sustainable energy unit.
How Asian countries choose to go ahead would have cascading consequences: They could either double down on clean energy or decide to not phase out fossil fuels immediately.
“We are at a really important crossroads,” said Chawla.
SRI LANKA: “SLOW GRIND”
Sri Lanka is an extreme example of the predicament facing poor nations. Enormous debts prevent it from buying energy on credit, forcing it to ration fuel for key sectors with shortages anticipated for the next year.
Sri Lanka set itself a target of getting 70% of all its energy from renewable energy by 2030 and aims to reach net zero — balancing the amount of greenhouse gas they emit with how much they take out of the atmosphere — by 2050.
Its twin needs of securing energy while reducing costs means it has “no other option” than to wean itself off fossil fuels, said Aruna Kulatunga, who authored a government report for Sri Lanka’s clean energy goals. But others, like Murtaza Jafferjee, director of the think tank Advocata Institute say these targets are more “aspirational than realistic” because the current electrical grid can’t handle renewable energy.
“It will be a slow grind,” said Jafferjee.
Grids that run on renewable energy need to be nimbler because, unlike fossil fuels, energy from wind or the sun fluctuates, potentially stressing transmission grids.
The economic crisis has decreased demand for energy in Sri Lanka. So while there are still power cuts, the country’s existing sources — coal and oil-fired plants, hydropower, and some solar — are coping.
Read: Russia uses suicide drones; Ukraine presses on with counteroffensive
CHINA, INDIA: HOME-GROWN ENERGY
How these two nations meet this demand will have global ramifications.
And the answer, at least in the short-term, appears to be a reliance on dirty-coal power — a key source of heat-trapping carbon dioxide emissions.
China, currently the top emitter of greenhouse gases in the world, aims to reach net zero by 2060, requiring significant slashing of emissions.
But since the war, China has not only imported more fossil fuels from Russia but also boosted its own coal output. The war, combined with a severe drought and a domestic energy crisis, means the country is prioritizing keeping the lights on over cutting dirty fuel sources.
India aims to reach net zero a decade later than China and is third on the list of current global emitters, although their historical emissions are very low. No other country will see a bigger increase in energy demand than India in the coming years, and it is estimated that the nation will need $223 billion to meet its 2030 clean energy targets. Like China, India’s looking to ramp up coal production to reduce dependence on expensive imports and is still in the market for Russian oil despite calls for sanctions.
But the size of future demand also means that neither country has a choice but to also boost their clean energy.
China is leading the way on renewable energy and moving away from fossil fuel dependence, said Buckley, who tracks the country’s energy policy.
“It might be because they are paranoid about climate change or because they want to absolutely dominate industries of the future,” said Buckley. “At the end of the day, the reason doesn’t really matter.”
India is also investing heavily in renewable energy and has committed to producing 50% of its power from clean energy sources by 2030.
“The invasion has made India rethink its energy security concerns,” said Swati D’Souza, of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
More domestic production doesn’t mean that the two countries are burning more coal, but instead substituting expensive imported coal with cheap homegrown energy, said Christoph Bertram at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. What was “crucial” for global climate goals was where future investments were directed.
“The flipside of investing into coal means you invest less into renewables,” he said.
JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA: THE NUCLEAR OPTION
Both Japan and South Korea, two of Asia’s most developed countries, are pushing for nuclear energy after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Sanctions against Russian coal and gas imports resulted in Japan looking for alternative energy sources despite anti-nuclear sentiments dating back to the 2011 Fukushima disaster. An earlier-than-expected summer resulted in power shortages, and the government announced plans to speed up regulatory safety checks to get more reactors running.
Japan aims to limit nuclear energy to less than a quarter of its energy mix, a goal seen as overly optimistic, but the recent push indicates that nuclear may play a larger role in the country.
Neighboring South Korea hasn’t seen short-term impacts on energy supplies since it gets gas from countries like Qatar and Australia and its oil from the Middle East. But there may be an indirect hit from European efforts to secure energy from those same sources, driving up prices.
Like Japan, South Korea’s new government has promoted nuclear-generated electricity and has indicated reluctance to sharply reduce the country’s coal and gas dependence since it wants to boost the economy.
“If this war continues ... we will obviously face a question on what should be done about the rising costs,” said Ahn Jaehun, from the Korean Federation for Environmental Movement.
Read: Russian troops withdrawn after Ukraine encircles key city
INDONESIA: DAMAGE CONTROL
The war, and consequent rising gas prices, forced Indonesia to reduce ballooning subsidies aimed at keeping fuel prices and some power tariffs in check.
But this was a very “hurried reform” and doesn’t address the challenge of weaning the world’s largest coal exporter off fossil fuels and reaching its 2060 net zero goal, said Anissa. R. Suharsono, of the International Institute for Sustainable Development.
“We’re sliding back, into just firefighting,” she said.
Coal exports have increased nearly 1.5 times between April and June, compared to 2021, in response to European demand and Indonesia has already produced over 80% of the total coal it produced last year, according to government data.
The country needs to nearly triple its clean energy investment by 2030 to achieve net zero by 2060, according to the International Energy Agency, but Suharsono said it wasn’t clear how it was going to meet those targets.
“There are currently no overarching regulations or a clear roadmap,” she said.
3 years ago