A closely watched by-election in northwest England could have major implications for British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s political future, as Labour candidate Andy Burnham seeks a return to Parliament amid growing discontent within the governing party.
Voters in the Makerfield constituency are set to elect a new member of Parliament on Thursday, with Burnham — the current mayor of Greater Manchester and a prominent Labour figure — widely viewed as a potential challenger to Starmer’s leadership if elected.
Although Starmer is not directly involved in the contest, political observers see the vote as a significant test of confidence in his leadership. Labour’s popularity has declined sharply since its landslide general election victory in July 2024, with criticism mounting over the government’s handling of economic growth, public services and the cost-of-living crisis.
Burnham has campaigned on a promise to bring political change and expand his regional development model, often referred to as “Manchesterism,” across the country. He has argued that Britain has been poorly served by what he describes as London-focused politics and called for greater attention to regional development.
The by-election was triggered after Labour lawmaker Josh Simons resigned, creating an opportunity for Burnham to return to Westminster. If elected, Burnham is expected to emerge as a leading contender in any future Labour leadership contest.
Under Labour Party rules, a leadership challenge can be launched if a candidate secures support from at least one-fifth of Labour MPs. Growing dissatisfaction within the party has already fueled speculation about Starmer’s position, despite the prime minister insisting he has no intention of stepping down.
Speaking during the Group of Seven summit in France, Starmer said he would fight any leadership challenge and emphasized that he remains committed to delivering on Labour’s electoral mandate.
Some senior Labour figures have openly expressed concerns about the party’s direction. Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who resigned in May, recently suggested there was a lack of leadership vision within the government and indicated he could consider entering a leadership contest if one takes place.
Political analysts say a strong Burnham victory would significantly increase pressure on Starmer. However, the outcome is not guaranteed.
The anti-immigration Reform UK party has gained momentum in parts of northern England and is hoping to capitalize on voter concerns over immigration and economic issues. Reform candidate Rob Kenyon is seeking to challenge Labour’s long-standing dominance in Makerfield, a constituency that has elected Labour MPs for more than a century.
Analysts warn that a Reform UK victory would not only deepen Labour’s political difficulties but also undermine Burnham’s credentials as a potential successor to Starmer.
The result is expected early Friday and is being closely watched as an indicator of Labour’s internal dynamics and the broader political mood in Britain.