The El Niño weather phenomenon is firmly established and is expected to intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, increasing the risks of floods, droughts and extreme heat across different parts of the world, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said.
According to the latest WMO update, forecasts from its Global Producing Centres show an exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100% that El Niño will continue through February 2027.
The latest forecast marks the first time a WMO El Niño/La Niña update has expressed such a high level of certainty, reflecting strong agreement among meteorological and climate forecasting centres worldwide.
El Niño is being driven by unusually warm ocean temperatures across the tropical Pacific. The phenomenon is expected to strengthen further over the next several months, reaching very strong intensity and likely peaking toward the end of 2026. Its effects on global climate and weather patterns are expected to continue well into 2027.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the developing phenomenon as an exceptionally large El Niño and warned that rising sea-surface and global temperatures could put the world at greater risk of extreme weather.
“The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” Guterres said, calling for stronger climate action to protect vulnerable populations.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Niño could have severe consequences for communities and economies worldwide, noting that droughts, floods and other disruptions are already being experienced in various regions.
She stressed the need for exceptional preparedness and response as the phenomenon intensifies.
Saulo said the WMO has launched a major mobilisation with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, describing them as being on the frontline of providing forecasts and early-warning services aimed at protecting lives and livelihoods.
The WMO will also work with UN agencies, humanitarian organisations and other partners to provide climate information needed for disaster preparedness and response, as well as for climate-sensitive sectors including agriculture, health, energy and water management.
“We have no time to lose,” Saulo said.
The WMO El Niño/La Niña Updates are considered a key source of information for governments and decision-makers. The forecasts are based on a consensus of climate models from WMO Global Producing Centres, along with assessments from national meteorological and hydrological services and climate prediction centres worldwide.