The International Crisis Group has said diversifying ties would give Bangladesh more 'strategic autonomy' and allow it to navigate changing regional politics more effectively, stressing that Dhaka should avoid aligning too closely with any single country or bloc.
"Given intensifying major-power competition in the Indo-Pacific, it should avoid aligning too closely with any single country or bloc," said the Brussels-based organisation that sounds the alarm to prevent deadly conflict globally.
It will also help mitigate the domestic backlash that is linked to perceptions of overdependence on specific external partners, as seen in the anti-India sentiment that eroded support for the Hasina government, ICG said, noting that the most important task for the new government will be rebuilding ties with India.
Bangladesh is getting back to the foreign policy of martyred President Ziaur Rahman and wants to maintain a good relationship with each country while at the same time protecting the country’s interests, a senior official told UNB.
Following the “Bangladesh First” policy, he said Dhaka will continue to seek respectful, mutually beneficial relations with all nations, particularly its neighbors, grounded in sovereign equality and shared interests.
The Crisis Group said former Prime Minister Hasina forged close relations with New Delhi, addressing its security concerns and bolstering economic integration and after she fell, bilateral relations plummeted to 'historic lows.'
India’s outreach to the BNP has continued since the election, with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi inviting Tarique Rahman to visit India, according to the Crisis Group Asia Briefing titled "Bangladesh’s New Government Gets Down to Business".
"Dhaka and New Delhi should seek to build on this long overdue reset. But domestic politics in both countries will constrain efforts to restore ties," said the ICG.
The BNP government has assumed office amid profound regional and global shifts, creating both risks and opportunities.
Under former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s foreign policy was closely aligned with that of India, ICG observed.
The organisation in its latest report released on Thursday said Hasina's ouster prompted a diplomatic rebalancing, and with bilateral relationships undergoing a period of adjustment, India, China and the U.S. are all seeking to deepen ties with the new administration.
Under US President Trump, Washington has placed greater emphasis on trade and strategic competition with China, including through the Reciprocal Trade Agreement signed in early February.
China, meanwhile, has continued to cultivate ties across the political spectrum, positioning itself as a key partner for infrastructure financing while emphasising its policy of non-interference in Bangladeshi politics, ICG said.
In this global environment, the BNP government will 'need to be careful' in how it balances relations with its major partners, which also include the European Union, Japan, Pakistan, Türkiye, Gulf Arab countries and Russia.
Foreign governments were quick to recognise the BNP’s victory.
Most importantly, India, which has a long history of supporting the AL and whose relations with Yunus’s interim government were frosty, signalled that it was open to working with the BNP, said the ICG.
The US and China also moved quickly to strengthen ties with the new government.
After the swearing-in ceremony, U.S. President Donald Trump sent a message of congratulations in which he urged the new prime minister to stick to a bilateral trade deal Washington had signed with the interim government and complete “routine defence agreements” that would enable the purchase of U.S. military equipment.
On 17 February, Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang said China looked forward to working with the BNP government in boosting “high-quality Belt and Road cooperation” and “elevating the China-Bangladesh Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership to a new level”.
The message also noted the two countries “have always respected and treated each other as equals, pursued mutually beneficial cooperation and win-win results” – an oblique criticism of India, which is perceived to have often interfered in Bangladeshi politics.
Rohingya Crisis
The Rohingya refugee crisis will remain one of Bangladesh’s most difficult foreign policy challenges, ICG said.
Continued conflict in Myanmar, particularly in Rakhine State, means the 1.2 million Rohingya refugees now living in camps in Cox’s Bazaar are unlikely to return home soon - something Tarique Rahman has all but acknowledged, it said.
With very limited options for third-country resettlement, most will have no choice but to remain in Bangladesh for the foreseeable future.
"But the current policy – which prohibits employment – leaves refugees heavily dependent on international aid, which has fallen sharply following the demise of USAID," it said. Declining funding has already forced the World Food Programme to reduce food assistance to many families.
As Crisis Group has argued, Dhaka should allow the Rohingya greater opportunities to earn income, while mitigating the impact such a change in policy would have on Bangladeshis.
"This reform would be in line with the BNP 2023’s policy paper on the refugee crisis, which promised to explore the possibility of Rohingya working in sectors with labour shortages," it said.
The government will also need to curb the influence of Rohingya armed groups, which pose security risks both in the camps and along the border.
As the Arakan Army now controls most of Rakhine State, where the refugees came from, Dhaka will also need to resume dialogue with the group; the interim government’s efforts made little headway, said the Crisis Group.