The government has expected that inflation in the country will fall below 7 percent by June 2026 ‘due to its contractionary monetary policy and austerity measures.

The expectation was expressed at a high-level meeting at the state guest house Jamuna on the country’s overall economic progress and budget expenditure on Monday under the leadership of Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus, according to a statement of the Chief Adviser’s press wing.

Finance Adviser Salehuddin Ahmed, Planning Adviser Wahiduddin Mahmud and Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur attended the meeting.

The meeting reviewed key macroeconomic indicators, including inflation, wage growth, agricultural production, the financial and external sectors, remittance inflows, imports and the opening of letters of credit.

Read more: Bangladesh inflation rises to 8.29% in November

The 12-month average general inflation rate fell below 9 percent in November 2025 for the first time since June 2023 and on a point-to-point basis, inflation crossed 9 percent in March 2023, reaching 9.33 percent, it said.

The point-to-point inflation dropped below 9 percent in June 2025 and declined further to 8.29 percent in November 2025.

Regarding wage growth, the meeting observed that in recent years the gap between inflation and wage growth had been wide, resulting in a decline in real income.

In recent months of the current fiscal year, the gap has narrowed significantly.

In November 2025, point-to-point inflation and wage growth stood at 8.29 percent and 8.04 percent respectively, compared with average rates of 9.02 percent and 7.04 percent in fiscal year 2022-23.

On agriculture, the meeting noted that appropriate incentives and management led to a good Boro harvest in the last fiscal year, while favorable conditions so far indicate the possibility of a good Aman harvest this season.

Read more: Rice biggest driver of October’s food inflation in Bangladesh: GED

As a result, the government is expected to achieve its food grain procurement target in the current fiscal year.

As of December 15, 2025, Aman rice production reached 16.095 million metric tonnes, and officials expect the final output to exceed the target once harvesting is completed.

Although Aus rice production fell slightly short of the target, total production increased by 7.20 percent compared to fiscal year 2024-25, said the Press Wing.

Imbalances in various economic indicators have already moved towards a more stable position, said the statement.

On the financial and external sectors, the meeting was informed that gross foreign exchange reserves stood at 32.57 billion US dollars as of December 18, 2025, up from around 25 billion dollars in August 2024.

The reserve levels are expected to rise further due to a more stable exchange rate, increased remittance inflows and a significant rise in interest rates in the financial sector, it added.

Regarding the current account, it was noted that Bangladesh had recorded consecutive deficits from fiscal year 2016-17 to 2023-24, amounting to 18.7 billion dollars, 11.6 billion dollars and 6.6 billion dollars in fiscal years 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24 respectively.

Due to improved financial management and measures to curb money laundering, the deficit narrowed to just 139 million dollars at the end of fiscal year 2024-25.

In the July to October period of the current fiscal year the deficit stood at 749 million dollars.

On remittances, the meeting noted that overseas employment for 500,000 workers was secured during July to November of the current fiscal year, compared with 397,000 during the same period last year.

During the same period, remittance inflows amounted to 13.04 billion dollars, marking a 17.14 percent increase year on year.

Import growth during July to November of fiscal year 2024-25 was negative at 1.2 percent but rose to 6.1 percent during the same period of fiscal year 2025-26, it said.

Read more: Bangladesh Bank keeps policy rate unchanged amid inflation fears ahead of election and Ramadan

On letters of credit, the meeting noted that the growth in opening LCs for capital machinery was negative 32.8 percent during July to October 2024 but increased to 27.7 percent in the same period of the current fiscal year.

Similarly, growth in opening LCs for industrial raw materials rose from 10.1 percent to 40.98 percent over the same period.