Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury on Thursday said for an import-dependent economy like Bangladesh, with significant reliance on external trade and remittance inflows, the evolving global conditions constitute direct and material risks to macroeconomic stability.

Unveiling the national budget for the fiscal year 2026-27 in Parliament, he said the recent developments in the Middle East have introduced additional risks to the global economic outlook, particularly through upward pressure on energy and petroleum prices.

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The Finance Minister said a prolonged continuation of this situation may lead to further increases in international fuel prices, as well as higher transportation and insurance costs.

He said it may also disrupt global shipping routes and create new challenges for the smooth flow of international trade.

At the same time, the Finance Minister said elevated global interest rates continue to constrain international financial flows.

This has contributed to higher costs of external borrowing, trade financing, and essential imports, he said.

The Finance Minister mentioned that the post-COVID global economy has still not fully returned to a stable position.

According to projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global growth in 2026 is expected to remain at around 3.3 per cent, while global inflation may hover near 3.8 per cent, he said.

“This suggests that, although the global economy continues to expand, the pace of recovery remains modest and is accompanied by persistent uncertainties,” said the Finance Minister.

Just ten days after the government assumed office, the start of the Middle East crisis introduced significant and unexpected risks to the economic landscape, said the Finance Minister.

The immediate impact of this regional instability has been most pronounced in the energy sector, where international prices of oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and chemical fertilisers increased sharply, in some cases more than doubling.

“These elevated energy costs have directly translated into higher production expenses across the power, agriculture, transport, and industrial sectors, thereby intensifying domestic inflationary pressures and placing a substantial burden on public finances in the form of increased subsidies,” he said.

At the same time, the Finance Minister said higher import costs have exerted additional pressure on already strained foreign exchange reserves.

“Moreover, given that the Middle East remains a key destination for our migrant workforce, prolonged instability in the region poses risks to overseas employment opportunities and to the steady inflow of remittances, which are vital for external sector stability,” he said.

Recent market data highlights the scale of the disruption in global commodity markets. In February 2026, the global Free on Board (FOB) price of refined diesel averaged around USD 86 per barrel.

Following the escalation of the conflict, prices surged sharply, reaching approximately USD 285 per barrel by April.

Similarly, LNG spot prices, which were relatively stable at around USD 10 per MMBtu (per one million British thermal units) prior to the crisis, increased to about USD 28.28 per MMBtu in April.

Although some moderation has since been observed, procurement of spot LNG continues at significantly elevated levels.

The agricultural sector has faced similar pressures. The global FOB price of urea fertilizer nearly doubled in the wake of the conflict, rising from approximately USD 422 per metric tonne to around USD 850 per metric tonne.

“These sharp increases have placed considerable strain on an 18 import-dependent economy, compelling us to manage an unprecedented external supply shock with limited fiscal space,” said the Finance Minister.