Stressing that US President Donald Trump’s foreign policy is going to be staunchly transactional, instead of values-based, American scholar Michael Kugelman on Wednesday said the new administration in Washington will view its relationship with Bangladesh through commercial and geopolitical perspectives. 

“At least initially, we can assume the administration, when it focuses on Bangladesh, will apply two lenses - commercial and geopolitical,” said Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington, adding that trade would remain on the table as part of bilateral ties which have remained fairly constant, and that will likely continue.

Kugelman, America’s leading South Asia specialist, made the remarks while delivering his keynote address at a seminar on “Bangladesh-US Relations: Prognosis for the Future” at the Foreign Service Academy in Dhaka.

Cosmos Foundation, the philanthropic arm of the Cosmos Group, hosted the event as part of its “Distinguished Lecture Series,” where the keynote speaker shared his own views in three parts - where they came from with US-BD relations, where they are now, and where they might be going.

He ended by laying out what he feels to be the most unrealistic and the most realistic pathways for partnership with the second Trump administration.

Welcome remarks at the event were delivered by Cosmos Foundation Chairman Enayetullah Khan, while the session was moderated by renowned scholar-diplomat Dr Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, former Adviser on Foreign Affairs to Bangladesh Caretaker Government.

President of the Bay of Bengal Institute and Adviser Emeritus of Cosmos Foundation, former Ambassador Tariq Ahmad Karim, President of Bangladesh Enterprise Institute former Ambassador Humayun Kabir, and International Relations Prof at Jahangirnagar University Shahab Enam Khan, among others, spoke on the occasion as discussants.

Sharing some words about the silver linings in place right now, Kugelman said Bangladesh is not going to be on Trump’s radar, but maybe that is a good thing for now, as the country may be well served by staying off it.

Secondly, he said, the Trump administration, due to its more moderate views of Moscow compared to Biden, is unlikely to give Bangladesh a hard time about its Russia-funded nuclear energy projects, and the increased outreach to Russia that started to accelerate under Hasina.

This means the multi-layered great power competition playing out in Bangladesh in recent years - US-China, India-China and US-Russia - could recede a bit, as that last rivalry may not play out as robustly in Bangladesh, Kugelman said.

“So this means Bangladesh is unable to face an awkward crisis like it did several years ago, when the US government pressured it not to let a Russian ship, bearing parts of the Rooppur nuclear project, dock in Bangladesh,” said the expert on South Asian affairs.

Third, aside from possible criticism of treatment of Hindus, Trump is not going to say much about internal issues and rights concerns in Bangladesh: “He won’t push Bangladesh to hold elections or not hold elections or push for a specific election timeframe. His foreign policy is staunchly interest-based, not values-based,” Kugelman predicted.

He did say however that great power competition would necessitate US engagement with Bangladesh and ensure it remains an area of strategic focus.

In other words, he said, the Trump administration will want to work with the Prof Muhammad Yunus-led interim government, even if not with the level of closeness that they saw with the Biden administration.

“So long as the terms are deemed to be OK for US commercial interests, the Trump administration will want to build on many years of trade ties,” said Kugelman, who also writes the very popular weekly South Asia Brief for Foreign Policy.

He did add that there will be several challenges, however. Bangladesh’s economic stress has gotten worse in recent years and the US is in a trade deficit with Bangladesh.

During the first Trump era, the value of US imports from Bangladesh was three times the value of its exports to Bangladesh. “Trump likely won’t want a repeat of that,” said Kugelman, adding that has considerable implications, given that the US remains a top export destination for Bangladesh.

He said Trump will also look at Bangladesh in the context of great power competition and US-China rivalry.

He reminded everyone that it was Trump who came up with the Indo Pacific Strategy, and strategy documents from his first term often described Bangladesh as an ‘Indo Pacific partner’.

“He will likely want, and perhaps pressure, Bangladesh to reduce its dependence on China. Now that could put Yunus in a tough spot—as he’ll have a strong incentive in not upsetting the Trump administration, given the support he will want to get, but he’ll also want to ensure critical Chinese support,” Kugelman said.

He noted that if Bangladesh is able to restore democracy and stability, this will encourage more private investment.

“The digital economy is an example,” Kugelman explained, adding that Bangladesh is one of several countries in South Asia that in recent years talked a big game about building out a digital economy, but then engaged in so much ‘overregulation’ of the Internet, so that online content has been heavily policed, banned, restricted, and censored, which risks scaring potential tech investors away.

“Bangladesh has a chance to change that, and attract American big tech,” he said.

After Dr Yunus’ interim administration took office, the US government reshaped its relationship with Bangladesh to focus on humanitarian aid and development and technical assistance for reforms, to help rebuild Bangladesh and restore its democracy, said Kugelman, adding that there was extensive engagement between the two sides, some of the most robust that had been seen in quite some time.

Where We Are Now

Kugelman noted that Dr Yunus and Trump are not exactly kindred spirits and their politics and worldview are very different.

When Bangladesh has a national election, whenever that is, it is hard to imagine a new leader that would make Trump any more compelled to step up engagement with Dhaka, he said.

The expert said Trump may have concerns about the state in which the Biden administration left the relationship. “The focus on humanitarian aid, development assistance and technical assistance for reforms—this could well sound like nation building, which is not President Trump’s thing.”

The fourth reason to be concerned about US-Bangladesh relations today is India, Kugelman said. Given domestic political factors in the US, including the influence of some Hindu-American advocacy groups in Trump’s circles, he said, the Trump administration may be inclined to side with India on Bangladesh-related issues that have upset Dhaka, such as India’s “baseless claims of pogroms against Hindus”.

“Election campaign politics prompted him to articulate in a social media post misinformation about security threats to Hindus,” Kugelman said.

“I’d venture to say that in the second Trump administration, the US relationship with Bangladesh may change the most of any US relationship in South Asia. There’s going to be a fair amount of policy continuity from Biden to Trump elsewhere, in other countries in the region, because the Indo Pacific policy will continue to guide US approaches to South Asia,” he said.

But in Bangladesh, Kugelman said, there could be a big shift—from a relationship focused on assistance and development and reforms support during the last months of Biden to one that will become much more transactional and governed by a what’s-in-it-for-me and what’s-in-it-for-America type of mindset, in line with Trump’s broader view on foreign policy.

This is, one can assume, not a position that Dhaka would like the new administration to take—given the scale of Bangladesh’s needs, post August 2024, and given how the US had emerged as a key backer of Bangladesh’s rebuilding efforts, he mentioned.

“It’s no coincidence that Yunus, after having harshly criticized Trump previously, issued a very warm and detailed congratulatory note to Trump after his election victory,” Kugelman said.

‘Privatising’ relations

Kugelman said privatising the relationship more is to better tap into the Bangladeshi diaspora in the US. “It’s not a huge one, but it’s a substantive one.”

He said there are successful Bangladesh-Americans working on high levels in all the sectors that are in need of support in Bangladesh—higher education, tech and IT, agriculture, manufacturing and so on.

“If you can tap into these diaspora members to transfer technology, share expertise, or provide financing in different sectors in Bangladesh, then you can strengthen the economy—and bring some badly needed diversification to an RMG-driven export economy,” Kugelman said.

He said the US-Bangladesh relationship does not just need to be about bilateral cooperation, especially when that might face some limits.

Because of sub-regionalisation trends in South Asia, the expert said, Bangladesh has been working more closely in recent years with some of its neighbours on connectivity and transport projects—as seen with the new Bangladesh-India-Nepal electricity sharing deal, and also increasing cooperation on connectivity between Bangladesh Nepal and India.

On multilateral military cooperation, Kugelman said Bangladesh has participated in the AMAN naval exercises, hosted by Pakistan, and in the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium, among other groupings.

Perhaps there is a role for the US in these activities, he said, adding that there is a role for Bangladesh in the Combined Maritime Forces, a large US-led naval partnership.

“These collaborations, in some cases, would help the US advance Indo Pacific goals, and they would also build more trust between the US and Bangladesh,” Kugelman said.

Cosmos Foundation Chairman Enayetullah Khan said there is a general expectation that the Trump Presidency may historically reshape the trajectory of US relations with other countries marking a noteworthy shift away from traditional diplomacy or commitments taken for granted to a transactional approach placing at their heart the question: “What’s in it for the United States and its people?, economically and strategically.

In a conflicted world, Khan said, Bangladesh appears to have no enemies. If a Bangladesh-US relationship can be forged that will advance Bangladesh’s quest for development, and the US aspirations for peace and stability, it can become a model for similar sets of bilateral relations between the US and others.

“In my view this can be best achieved through deepening the direct links between Dhaka and Washington and display a strategic dimension of our partnership, one where both see each other as partners in search of peace, stability and growth,” he said.

Dr Iftekhar said the return of President Trump to the White House points to a trifecta in foreign policy.

Talking about the three elements, he said first, national self-interest is to be achieved through not by spreading so-called liberal values like democracy, pluralism and human rights which might entail foreign entanglements in a milieu where friends and foes alike would be equally subservient to perceived US interests.

Second, he said, foreign relations would be entirely transactional, including making deals that would always put America first and foremost, often solely, which would also imply selling arms to allies rather than expanding military footprint abroad.

And third, Dr Iftekhar said, security would be advanced by denying foreign powers close proximity to America, a replay of the Monroe doctrine of circa 1823 that could be called 'Donroe Doctrine' circa 2025 after Donald Trump, which also explains the acquisitive tendencies vis-à-vis Greenland and Panama.

Ambassador Humayun Kabir said, “We need Chinese support for our development. We also need US support for our development. Now the big elephant here is how we handle India and what role India will play.”

He thinks maintaining a bilateral relationship with the US without India would be their number-1 strategic priority. “That would be an important element for Bangladesh.”

Recalling his time as ambassador in Washington, he advocated for engaging with US companies in the private sector, as a way to gain influence in the US capital.

“Back then (2012), we had signed a deal to sign several aircraft from leading US manufacturer Boeing, in a deal worth $2 billion,” he said, adding: “At the time, Boeing ensured that Washington’s doors opened for us.”

Shahab Enam Khan insisted there was a need to ‘debunk the Trump-paranoia’ in different layers of government, and also among political parties, that itself is the source of much of the polarization witnessed. 

He asserted there was scope for the need to diversify Bangladesh’s defence purchases by looking at the US as a potential supplier.

“The US and Bangladesh must know that they share enough political capital, social capital, economic capital to bridge any gaps that may open up in the relationship,” Khan said.

While on the subject of foreign policy, he drew attention to the major change in how it is now being crafted in Bangladesh, following last year’s August 5 Uprising.

"After 15 years, you can see how our foreign policy particularly vis-a-vis India is forced to incorporate the will of the masses, rather than being the exclusive domain of the government or Foreign Ministry," said the expert on Bangladesh’s foreign relations.

Delivering the closing remarks, Ambassador Tariq Karim said Bangladesh’s geographic location between India and China means it becomes a peacemaker or a peace-inducer, being at the heart of the Indo Pacific narrative, and that is the best future he foresees.

“India is all around us, and China is more or less splitting the distance away from us. We cannot afford to either clash with one or the other or take sides with one against the other. Nor can we take sides within any competing power in the contestation and competition taking place,” he said.

“Indeed, our role, as I see it, is to be the good facilitator, the good person who will invite others clashing outside, but come in and have a cup of tea and discuss your problems,” he added.