Six weeks after Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed a defense agreement in Mecca pledging to regard an armed attack on any one of them as an attack on all three, the escalating confrontation between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia is putting the commitment to its first major test.
Houthi forces have pushed along Yemen’s western coast toward the strategically important Bab al-Mandab Strait while increasing missile and drone attacks against targets deep inside Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia, in response, has stepped up airstrikes on Houthi positions in Yemen.
Tensions rose further after Saudi authorities said they had intercepted a Houthi drone south of Mecca before it entered the holy city’s airspace. The Houthis denied that they had targeted Mecca.
The confrontation then moved closer to the Saudi capital on Saturday. Explosions were reported in Riyadh as authorities issued an air alert, while the Saudi-led coalition said its air defenses intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile aimed at the city. The Houthis said they had launched attacks on targets in Riyadh and Yanbu, a major energy center on the Red Sea.
The widening exchange has turned the renewed conflict in Yemen into a broader test of regional deterrence. Türkiye and Pakistan have pledged to support Saudi Arabia, although neither country has announced plans to take part directly in combat operations against the Houthis.
The situation is raising a key question over the Mecca agreement: whether its members can make their collective defense commitment credible enough to discourage further attacks without becoming directly involved in a wider conflict.
Pressure spreads beyond Yemen
Saudi Arabia is coming under increasing pressure across a wider area, from fighting in Yemen and around the Bab al-Mandab Strait to attacks threatening its cities and energy facilities.
On Saturday, the Houthis said they had used ballistic and cruise missiles and drones to attack what they called “sensitive targets” in Riyadh and an Aramco facility in Yanbu in western Saudi Arabia.
Saudi authorities said their air defenses intercepted the missile aimed at Riyadh and stopped attacks targeting Baish, Taif, Farasan and Yanbu.
Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Sarea said the group was following a policy of “escalation for escalation,” linking the attacks to increased Saudi airstrikes in Yemen.
The situation on the ground in Yemen has also changed significantly.
Houthi forces captured the strategic Red Sea port of Mocha in southwestern Taiz province on Sept. 10. The following day, they took Dhubab and Mayyun Island in the Bab al-Mandab Strait after government forces withdrew farther south into neighboring Lahj province.
Fighting has since intensified around the Kahbub mountain region and nearby high ground overlooking the approaches to the strait. Both sides have been sending additional forces to the area.
The Bab al-Mandab Strait connects the Gulf of Aden with the Red Sea and, farther north, the Suez Canal, making it a key route for global trade and energy shipments.
With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz already affected by wider regional tensions, instability around Bab al-Mandab is adding pressure on another major maritime chokepoint.
From pledge to practice
On Aug. 7, Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistani Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement.
The agreement is based on the principle of collective defense, under which an armed attack against any of the three countries is to be treated as an attack against all of them.
Later that month, the three countries began establishing the pact’s institutional framework. At a meeting in Istanbul, they agreed to expand military coordination and defense-industry cooperation and to establish a permanent secretariat in Saudi Arabia.
The Houthi attacks have now shifted the agreement from institutional planning to a practical test.
Türkiye has offered the clearest indication of the possible form of its support. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Saturday that Ankara would honor its commitments and could provide technical assistance to address Saudi military needs.
Pakistan has also issued strong political statements in support of Saudi Arabia. Islamabad has repeatedly condemned attacks on the kingdom and reaffirmed its support for Saudi sovereignty and territorial integrity. Pakistan’s military has said it would go “to any extent” to defend Saudi sovereignty.
However, neither Ankara nor Islamabad has announced direct military operations against the Houthis.
For Türkiye and Pakistan, fulfilling the collective-defense commitment does not necessarily mean immediately joining the fighting in Yemen. Analysts said their assistance could include air-defense coordination, intelligence sharing, technical support and logistics aimed at strengthening Saudi defenses while avoiding direct involvement in the conflict.
Deterrence without entanglement?
The escalation is testing whether the new alliance can make its collective-defense pledge an effective deterrent without becoming directly involved in the war, Aden-based political analyst Muqbil Naji told Xinhua.
“The challenge is not simply to show solidarity with Saudi Arabia, but to make that solidarity credible enough to influence the calculations of those attacking it,” Naji said.
He said Turkish and Pakistani assistance could improve Saudi Arabia’s ability to detect and intercept incoming missiles and drones, but would not guarantee protection against every attack.
“More defenses can reduce the risk, but they cannot remove it,” he said. “The bigger challenge is preventing the attacks from continuing.”
Analysts also warned that greater involvement by Türkiye and Pakistan could create another risk by making the conflict more difficult to contain.
“The more actors enter the equation, the harder it becomes to keep the conflict contained,” said Ali bin Hadi, a military observer based in Aden.
He said the situation could become significantly more complicated if Turkish or Pakistani personnel or military assets were directly attacked.
“Once their own forces come under attack, staying purely defensive becomes much harder,” he said.
For now, analysts said there is still room for Türkiye and Pakistan to strengthen Saudi defenses while avoiding direct military intervention and maintaining diplomatic channels.
But that balance remains vulnerable to further escalation. A major attack causing heavy casualties in Saudi Arabia, significant damage to energy infrastructure or another incident near the holy sites could change the calculations quickly.
The first major test of the Mecca agreement, analysts said, may therefore be less about whether Turkish or Pakistani forces enter the Yemen conflict and more about whether their commitment can raise the cost of further attacks enough to discourage additional escalation.