President Donald Trump’s hardline approach toward Iran is facing a major setback as diplomatic efforts and military pressure fail to shift Tehran’s long-standing positions, while tensions remain high over the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
Trump, who often presents himself as a strong dealmaker, has alternated between threats of military action and claims that a breakthrough with Iran is close. His aides have suggested the United States is gaining the upper hand and that a deal is within reach amid fragile ceasefire conditions and rising pressure on Tehran.
However, Trump on Monday said he had paused plans for an imminent resumption of strikes after requests from Gulf Arab allies, who said serious negotiations were underway. He added that a potential agreement would benefit the United States and countries across the Middle East.
Despite that pause, Trump warned he had instructed military officials to be ready for a “large scale assault” if talks fail, underscoring his repeated pattern of setting deadlines for Iran and then stepping back from immediate action.
There is little sign that Iran is ready to meet US demands, which include ending its nuclear programme, scaling back ballistic missile development and cutting support for allied groups in Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. Iranian officials have largely maintained their positions despite economic pressure and internal challenges.
The White House defended Trump’s strategy, saying he prioritises diplomacy but will only accept a deal that serves US interests. A spokesperson said the president “holds all the cards” and is keeping all options open to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
A key factor in the standoff is Iran’s influence over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping route. Even amid US pressure, Tehran’s leverage over the waterway has contributed to volatility in global energy markets and higher fuel prices, adding political pressure on Trump domestically.
The economic impact has also affected Trump’s standing at home, with recent polling showing weaker approval on economic issues as rising energy costs concern voters ahead of upcoming elections.
Analysts say Trump’s pressure strategy, which has worked in other countries, has not produced similar results with Iran. Tehran continues to resist concessions beyond what was discussed in earlier nuclear negotiations during the Obama administration, from which Trump withdrew in 2018, calling it a flawed agreement.
Since a fragile ceasefire took effect last month, Trump has repeatedly criticised the pace of negotiations. Iran, meanwhile, has responded by insisting its military remains prepared while diplomacy continues.
Experts say both sides appear locked in a stalemate, with neither believing it is close to defeat and both hoping time will strengthen their position. Some analysts note that ongoing pressure in the Strait of Hormuz is increasing costs for both Washington and Tehran while delaying a resolution.
Former US officials and policy experts remain divided, with some describing the situation as a deadlock and others arguing that Trump still holds strategic leverage despite market instability and regional concerns.