Bangladesh’s economy posted a stronger performance in the first quarter (Q1) of the 2025-26 fiscal year, with gross domestic product (GDP) growth accelerating to 4.50 percent on a point-to-point basis in constant prices, according to provisional estimates.
The latest quarterly figures show a notable improvement compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year, when GDP growth stood at 2.58 percent, reflecting a broad-based recovery driven mainly by the industrial sector alongside improvements in agriculture and services.
In current prices, the size of GDP in Q1 of FY26 has been estimated at Tk 13,853,433 million (Tk 13,853 billion), up from Tk 12,401,032 million (Tk 12,401 billion) recorded in the first quarter of FY25, indicating a substantial expansion in nominal economic activity year-on-year.
According to quarterly-based estimates, the growth rate of gross domestic product at constant prices for the entire FY25 has been placed at 3.72 percent.
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The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) noted that this quarterly-based estimate differs from the provisional annual GDP estimate for FY25 prepared on a yearly basis.
The discrepancy will be addressed through internationally accepted benchmarking methods once the final annual GDP figures for FY25 are compiled, ensuring consistency between quarterly and annual national accounts.
The agriculture sector returned to positive territory in Q1 of FY26, registering a growth of 2.30 percent at constant prices on a point-to-point basis.
This marks a significant turnaround from the contraction of 0.60 percent recorded in the same quarter of FY25.
The improvement in agricultural output suggests a degree of stabilisation following earlier disruptions, supported by better crop performance and a gradual recovery in allied activities such as livestock and fisheries.
The rebound in agriculture is expected to provide some relief to rural incomes and food supply dynamics.
The industrial sector emerged as the strongest performer, posting a robust growth of 6.97 percent in Q1 of FY26, nearly double the 3.59 percent growth recorded in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal year.
Analysts view the sharp acceleration in industrial growth as a key driver of the overall economic upturn, reflecting improved manufacturing activity, gradual easing of energy-related constraints and a modest pickup in domestic demand.
Export-oriented industries, particularly manufacturing, are believed to have contributed significantly to the sector’s stronger performance.
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The services sector also recorded improved growth, expanding by 3.67 percent in Q1 of FY26 compared to 2.96 percent in the same quarter of FY25.
The expansion in services indicates a gradual revival in trade, transport, communications and other service-related activities, which had remained under pressure amid economic uncertainty and subdued consumption in the previous year.
The stronger GDP growth in the first quarter of FY26 points to early signs of economic recovery, supported by improved sectoral performance across agriculture, industry and services.
However, economists caution that sustaining this momentum will depend on continued policy support, stability in the macroeconomic environment and progress in addressing structural challenges.
The provisional nature of the quarterly estimates also underscores the need for careful interpretation, with revisions expected as more comprehensive data become available.
Nonetheless, the Q1 figures provide an encouraging signal at the start of the fiscal year, suggesting that growth is gradually gaining pace after a period of slowdown.
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