As the national election approaches, law enforcement agencies have stepped up operations to recover illegal firearms, aiming to prevent violence, sabotage and broader security threats.

As in previous election cycles, police, the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and intelligence agencies are conducting special drives nationwide. Yet a critical question persists: how effective are these efforts on the ground?

The concern is sharpened by the fallout from the student-led mass uprising on August 5 last year, when 5,763 firearms were looted or went missing from police stations and other installations across the country. Of these, 4,426 weapons have since been recovered, leaving 1,337 still untraced.

A senior official at Police Headquarters, speaking on condition of anonymity, told UNB that most of the recovered looted weapons were heavy arms. The missing cache, however, largely consists of small firearms such as pistols and revolvers.

While many unrecovered heavy weapons are believed to have been smuggled out through border routes, small arms pose a greater risk due to their portability and ease of concealment—raising fears of their potential use in election-related violence, he said.

Election Pressure and Arms Challenge

Historically, Bangladesh’s pre-election period is marked by heightened political tension and a greater risk of illegal arms use.

Past elections have seen links between this period and incidents such as cocktail explosions, arson attacks and targeted violence. Consequently, arms recovery drives are treated as a top priority ahead of the polls.

Read more: Operation Devil Hunt Phase-2 to begin ahead of national election

According to multiple law enforcement sources, coordinated nationwide operations involving police, RAB and specialised intelligence units are launched before every election with the aim of cutting off the supply of weapons before violence erupts.

AIG (Media) at Police Headquarters, AHM Shahadat Hossain, told UNB that arms recovery operations are currently ongoing across the country, with weapons being seized almost daily.

Checkposts have been strengthened and patrols intensified, he said, adding that operations would be further scaled up once the election schedule is announced.

He also noted that upcoming drives would be more intelligence-based, as agencies have already identified violence-prone areas and enhanced surveillance ahead of the polls.

Reward Announced, But Limited Gains

Several months ago, Home Affairs Adviser Lieutenant General (retd) Jahangir Alam Chowdhury and Police Headquarters jointly announced monetary rewards for the recovery of looted weapons still missing since the August 5 unrest.

While the initiative was initially welcomed, officials now concede that the results have fallen short of expectations.

Read more: Firearms, ammo seized at Airport Railway Station

A responsible source at Police Headquarters told UNB that the reward announcement did not lead to any major breakthroughs, noting that almost all recovered looted weapons had been seized before the incentive was introduced.

Analysts suggest the assumption that illegal arms holders would voluntarily surrender weapons in exchange for rewards did not hold true in practice. Many of the firearms are believed to remain in the hands of organised criminal groups or to be under political protection.

Another senior police official said more than 80 per cent of the unrecovered looted weapons are small arms, making their recovery before the election particularly challenging.

Intelligence Over Sweeping Raids

In response, Police Headquarters has revised its strategy, moving away from sudden blanket raids and mass arrests towards intelligence-based, targeted operations.

“A sweeping operation may produce short-term results, but intelligence-driven actions allow us to strike at the core holders and networks,” a senior police officer told UNB.

Read more: Ex-JCD leader among 7 arrested with arms in Gazipur raid

As part of this approach, the Detective Branch (DB), Special Branch (SB) and other units have intensified field-level intelligence gathering. Known criminals, arms dealers and their associates are now under closer surveillance.

How Effective Is This Model?

Security analyst Brigadier General (retd) Md Abdul Hamid believes intelligence-based operations are more effective in the long run, though their impact takes time to materialise. The key challenge, he said, is the limited time available before the election.

Abdul Hamid, a former Defence Adviser at the Bangladesh Mission in New Delhi, added that the success of arms recovery efforts should not be judged solely by the number of weapons seized. “It also depends on how much election-time violence can be prevented. If major violence is avoided, the drive can be considered partially successful,” he said.

Illegal arms recovery ahead of elections remains crucial. Yet despite reward announcements, strategic shifts and heightened intelligence activity, tangible results on the ground remain limited. Experts argue that sustained success will require coordinated action against weapon sources, trafficking networks and political protection.

Ultimately, the real test of these operations will come during the election days themselves—when it will become clear whether the intensified arms recovery drive has been enough to ensure a peaceful vote.

Read more: 10 foreign firearms, 30kg gunpowder seized in 24 hours